Australian Crop Report September 2025

Above average national winter crop production

Australian winter crop production is forecast to increase by 2% to 62 million tonnes in 2025-26 (Figure 1). This is 26% above the 10-year average to 2024-25 and if realised, would be the third highest on record. This forecast reflects expected improvements in production in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria and above average production in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Despite a very dry and sporadic start to the winter cropping season in South Australia and Victoria, improved seasonal conditions throughout winter have boosted production prospects across Australia’s major winter cropping regions.

• After an unfavourable start to the winter cropping season in South Australia, western Victoria and southern New South Wales many crops were dry sown with limited soil moisture. Above average July rainfall in South Australian and Victoria, combined with follow up rainfall in August has provided enough moisture for crop emergence and establishment, and although 3-4 weeks late, yield potential is positive.
• Rainfall in southern New South Wales has not been as favourable with crops receiving just enough to maintain growth. Further rainfall will be crucial for current yield potential to be realised.
• By contrast, conditions have been favourable in Western Australia, Queensland, and northern New South Wales, reflecting timely rainfall that has maintained soil moisture profiles. These conditions have placed crops in an excellent position heading into spring.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 21 August 2025, there is a 65% to 80% chance that spring rainfall will be above average across cropping regions in Queensland and New South Wales, and a 55% to 70% in Victoria and South Australia. Meanwhile, cropping regions in Western Australia have a lower chance of receiving above average rainfall (between 35% and 50%). This generally favourable spring rainfall outlook, if realised, is expected to support crop development and boost yield potential.

National winter crop production has been revised up 12% compared to the June 2025 Australian Crop Report. This reflects better than expected conditions in most cropping regions with upwards revisions for all major winter crops from the June forecast.

• Wheat production is forecast to fall by 1% to 33.8 million tonnes in 2025-26, 22% above the 10-year average to 2024-25.
• Barley production is forecast to increase by 10% to 14.6 million tonnes in 2025-26, 23% above the 10-year average to 2024-25.
• Canola production is forecast to increase by 1% to 6.4 million tonnes in 2025-26, 34% above the 10-year average to 2024-25.
• Lentil production is forecast to increase by 34% to a record 1.7 million tonnes in 2025-26, 95% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. This expansion reflects a record area planted.
• Chickpea production is forecast to fall by 7% to 2.1 million tonnes in 2025-26, with the expansion in area planted expected to be offset by lower yields.

Figure 1 Australian winter crop production, 2025-26

Source: ABARES

Good soil moisture availability and positive rainfall outlook for summer crops

Area planted to summer crops in 2025-26 is forecast to remain above average at 1.3 million hectares. This is supported by average to above average soil moisture levels in late winter and the favourable spring rainfall outlook across key summer cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland. Summer crop production is forecast to be down 12% from 2024-25 levels at 4.5 million tonnes but remain 21% above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 9% to 2.4 million tonnes in 2025-26. Area planted to sorghum is forecast to increase by 3% to 602 thousand hectares, 16% above the 10-year average to 2024-25, reflecting expected favourable conditions during the planting window. At this early stage, yields are not forecast to be at last year’s well above average to record high levels.

Production of cotton lint is forecast to fall by 16% to 1 million tonnes in 2025-26, reflecting a reduction in planted area and lower yields. Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 11% to 461 thousand hectares in 2025-26, largely reflecting a fall in New South Wales due to decreased availability of irrigation water and elevated water prices.

Rice production is forecast to fall by 36% to just over 300 thousand tonnes in 2025-26, driven by a 30% decrease in the area planted. Ongoing dry conditions have resulted in a decline in water availability across the Murray-Darling basin and an increase in the price of irrigation water, which is expected to constrain the area planted to rice.

Figure 2 Australian summer crop production, 2025-26

Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 10% to 3.4 million tonnes in 2025-26. The overall fall in winter crop production reflects a year-on-year fall in area and lower expected yields for most winter crops. Despite the fall, this is 50% above the 10-year average to 2024-25 of 2.3 million tonnes, supported by high soil moisture levels at planting and favourable rainfall during the growing season. This represents a 9% upward revision from the June 2025 Australian Crop Report, reflecting both higher yields and area planted.

Area planted to winter crops in Queensland in 2025-26 is estimated to have remained relatively unchanged compared to last year at 1.6 million hectares, 27% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. Area planted to wheat and barley is expected to fall (by 2% and 8% respectively) but remain above the 10-year averages to 2024-25. By contrast, area planted to chickpeas is expected to rise by 7% in 2025-26, supported by favourable chickpea prices.

Winter crop yields are forecast to fall by 10% to around 2.19 tonnes per hectare in 2025-26 but remain 25% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. The climate outlook (issued by Bureau of Meteorology on 21 Aug 2025) indicates that the chance of exceeding median rainfall is above 65% across most of Queensland between September and November. Despite a dry June in southern Queensland, average July rainfall has meant soil moisture levels remained average to above average for most of Queensland during the growing season. A positive spring rainfall outlook is expected to boost above average yield prospects.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 9% to 2.3 million tonnes in 2025-26. This is 31% above the 10-year average to 2024-25, as sufficient soil moisture and the above average rainfall outlook for spring is expected to support planting intentions. At this early stage, yields are expected to fall from record or near record levels seen in 2024-25 for most summer crops but remain 23% above 10-year-average to 2024-25.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 12% to 1.6 million tonnes in 2025-26, as yields are expected to fall from record levels in 2024-25 and more than offset the increase in area planted. Despite falling, sorghum production is expected to remain 35% above the 10-year-average to 2024-25, supported by a favourable soil moisture profile and the above average rainfall outlook. Expected increases in area planted largely reflects higher planting area in Central Queensland, where below average summer rainfall discouraged planting in 2024-25.

Cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 5% to 390 thousand tonnes in 2025-26, driven by a fall in planted area and lower yields. Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 2% to 160 thousand hectares in 2025-26 but remain 11% above the 10-year average to 2024-25, supported by a favourable spring rainfall outlook and high water availability. Yields are forecast to fall 3% from near record levels in 2024-25 but remain 20% above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in New South Wales is forecast to decrease by 14% to 17.7 million tonnes in 2025-26 but remain 38% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. This represents a 12% upward revision from the June 2025 Australian Crop Report. A positive start to the winter cropping season in northern New South Wales, combined with favourable winter rainfall has placed crops in an excellent position heading into spring. Conditions in parts of central and most of southern New South Wales have not been as favourable, with dry conditions persisting throughout winter.

Winter crop yields are currently forecast to average 2.6 tonnes per hectare in 2025-26, 22% above the 10-year average to 2024-25, mainly reflecting the excellent conditions in northern New South Wales, but also the forecast of improved climatic conditions in southern growing regions. The climate outlook, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 21 August 2025, indicates a strong tendency toward above average rainfall for most cropping regions in New South Wales. Average to above average soil moisture levels across much of northern New South Wales at the end of winter, combined with a positive spring rainfall outlook, is expected to support above average yield prospects. However, yield prospects in southern cropping regions will be highly reliant on adequate and timely rainfall to realise current yield expectations.

Area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is estimated to have fallen by 3% in 2025-26 to 6.9 million hectares, which is still 21% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. The area planted to wheat is estimated to be down 5% year-on-year but remain 16% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. Barley area is estimated to be unchanged year-on-year at 1 million hectares. Area planted to canola is estimated to be down 9% year-on-year, reflecting very dry conditions during autumn in southern cropping regions of New South Wales - where the majority of canola is grown.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in New South Wales in 2025-26 is forecast to fall 16% to 2.1 million tonnes. This is still 11% above the 10-year average to 2024-25, reflecting sufficient soil moisture in northern cropping regions and the above average rainfall outlook. At this early stage, yields are not expected to be to be as high as the levels seen in 2024-25 for most summer crops but are forecast to be 7% above the 10-year-average to 2024-25.

The area planted to Sorghum is forecast to increase by 6% to 190 thousand hectares in 2025-26, 29% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. Good soil moisture availability and the positive spring rainfall outlook should incentivise sorghum planting. However, sorghum area planted will ultimately depend on the timing of winter crop harvests and soil moisture during the planting window. At this early stage, average yields are forecast to be below last season, with production currently forecast to be down 2% year-on-year at 830 thousand tonnes.

Cotton lint production is estimated to fall by 21% to 618 thousand tonnes in 2025-26 but remain 10% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. Area planted to cotton is estimated to fall by 16% to 283 thousand hectares which is 1% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. Low carryover water from 2024-25 and below average allocations are expected to drive lower irrigated planting. Dryland planting is expected to fall slightly but remain well above average, as above average forecast spring rainfall is expected to replenish soil moisture and support planting intentions. Yields are forecast to fall from near record levels in 2024-25 but remain 11% above 10-year average to 2024-25.

Rice production is estimated to fall by 37% to 300 thousand tonnes in 2025-26, driven by a 30% decrease in the area planted. Ongoing dry conditions have resulted in a decline in water availability across the southern Murray-Darling basin and an increase in the price of irrigation water, which is likely to constrain the area planted to rice.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to reach 8.9 million tonnes in 2025-26, up 14% from 2024-25. Improved seasonal conditions have boosted production prospects, with winter crop production now expected to be 8% above the 10-year average of 8.2 million tonnes. This represents a 7% upward revision from the June 2025 Australian Crop Report and is the 6th highest production total on record.

Following a mostly dry and sporadic start to the winter cropping season, average to above average June and July rainfall across the north central and western cropping regions supported crop establishment and growth. Warmer conditions throughout July and August accelerated crop development, especially across areas in the eastern Mallee that also benefitted from late April rain. Improved seasonal conditions have lifted yield potential, mostly benefitting cereal crops. By contrast, planting and establishment has been less favourable in some areas across the northwest of the Mallee. Timely and sufficient rainfall throughout spring in these areas will be critical to support crop development and grain fill.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 21 August 2025, rainfall is likely to exceed median levels across most cropping regions in Victoria. Above average forecast rainfall is likely to support current yield and production prospects. However, warmer-than-average temperatures throughout spring present a downside risk to the forecast given current low levels of stored subsoil moisture in some regions.

Winter crop yields are forecast to rise by 15% to 2.4 tonnes per hectare in 2025-26, 2% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. The average wheat yield is forecast to increase by 17% to 2.7 tonnes per hectare, just above the 10-year average. Similarly, the average barley yield is forecast to increase by 21% to 2.9 tonnes per hectare, 12% above the 10-year average, reflecting barley’s ability to withstand drier conditions comparative to other cereals.  The average state canola yield is forecast to increase by 1% to 2.1 tonnes. Canola yields are comparatively lower given the drier start to the season and the crops higher water demand.

Area planted to winter crops in Victoria in 2025-26 is estimated to have remained flat at 3.7 million hectares, 7% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Despite a relatively dry start in most cropping regions, planting intentions remained positive. Additionally, areas traditionally planted to wheat and canola have shifted into barley and lentils, with lentils incorporated more widely into crop rotations.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in South Australia is forecast to rise to 7.9 million tonnes in 2025-26 from 5.3 million tonnes in 2024-25. This represents an upward revision of 5% from the June 2025 Australian Crop Report, now 1% above the 10-year average. Below-average rainfall at the start of winter delayed germination of dry sown winter crops, with upper layer soil moisture also remaining below average.

Much needed rainfall fell across many parts of South Australia's cropping regions in June and July, including the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas, improving upper layer soil moisture. However, lower layer soil moisture remains below average to extremely low in other areas, particularly in marginal cropping regions like the Mallee. The late start to the season and variable conditions to date have resulted in uneven crop establishment and development, with paddocks at varying growth stages.

The Bureau of Meteorology's latest climate outlook (September to November), released on 21 August 2025, indicates that above average rainfall is likely across much of South Australia, with a 75% chance of 50-100 millimetres forecast across most cropping regions. If realised, these falls are likely be sufficient to support the growth and development of winter crops. Following a delayed start to the season and rising temperatures forecast in the outlook, yield prospects now depend on receiving adequate and timely rainfall during spring. Frost continues to remain a threat to yield during the critical flowering and growth stage, presenting an additional downside risk to yield potential.

Winter crop yields are forecast to increase by 49% to 2.0 tonnes per hectare in 2025-26, with the average state yield 3% below the 10-year average to 2024-25. This represents an upward revision from the June 2025 Australian Crop Report. Canola yields are expected to increase to 1.6 tonnes per hectare, although this remains 8% below the 10-year average. Wheat and barley yields are also forecast to rise significantly, reaching 2.1 tonnes per hectare and 2.4 tonnes per hectare, respectively. Wheat yields are projected to be 2% below the 10-year average to 2024-25, while barley yields are expected to be 3% above the 10-year average. The increase in yields across all major crops largely reflects above average July rainfall across most South Australian cropping regions, which has supported crop development and improved soil moisture profiles.

The area planted to winter crops is estimated to have remained largely unchanged year-on-year, holding at a historically high level of 3.9 million hectares, 5% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. Barley planting is estimated to have increased by 3% to 835 thousand hectares, while lentil area is forecast to rise by 10% to 515 thousand hectares. This marks a notable shift in planting decisions, with growers favouring lentils over other major crops in 2025-26 - a move driven by strong price signals and the crop’s resilience to adverse weather conditions. These gains are anticipated to come largely at the expense of canola, as growers held back from expanding plantings significantly due to the dry start to the growing season and less favourable rainfall forecast at the time of sowing. Wheat area is estimated to have eased slightly to 2 million hectares, while canola area is estimated to have declined 15% to 230 thousand hectares.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Western Australia is forecast to increase by 4% to 23.9 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 23.0 million tonnes in 2024-25. This forecast represents a 15% upward revision from the June 2025 Australian Crop Report and is now 33% above the 10-year average. The forecast year-on-year increase in production is largely attributable to higher yields, as a result of above-average rainfall in July and August in key northern and southern regions. A largely neutral rainfall outlook and forecast cooler temperatures for September across Western Australia, is forecast to support current yield potential.

Despite the unfavourable dry conditions experienced in autumn and June, subsequent above average rainfall in key northern and southern cropping regions has supported crop establishment and growth. Timely rainfall and warmer growing conditions in July and August accelerated crop development, which had been later than normal due to the dry start to the season. Improved seasonal conditions have reinforced yield potential, particularly benefitting cereal crops in the northern and southern regions. Rainfall received in late winter has also improved production prospects in central cropping regions, which had previously only received below average rainfall during May and June.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (September to November), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 21 August 2025, it is less likely for spring rainfall totals to exceed median levels across key northern cropping regions. Close to average rainfall is more likely in September and daytime temperatures are expected to be average to below average in most cropping regions during September and October. The outlook for early spring rainfall and mild temperatures should support winter crops through critical development stages and provide favourable growing conditions to maintain above average yields across most cropping regions.

Winter crop yields are forecast to rise by 1% in 2025-26 and remain 25% above the 10-year average to 2024-25, reflecting the favourable conditions experienced during the season in northern and southern cropping regions and a close to average rainfall outlook. However, these current yield expectations are highly reliant on timely in crop rainfall to be realised.

Area planted to winter crops in Western Australia in 2025-26 is estimated to have increased by 3% from 2024-25 to just over 9 million hectares, 7% above the 10-year average to 2024-25. This largely reflects an increase in area sown in southern Western Australia, where above average July and August rainfall has resulted in strong yield potential for growers. Winter rainfall has boosted soil moisture levels from below-average in autumn to average in central cropping regions and above average in the northern and southern regions.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES