The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports. Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply.
Agricultural overview
6 September 2022
Gross value to exceed $80 billion for a second year.
Australian crop report
6 September 2022
Excellent winter crop prospects in 2022–23. Record summer crop production in 2021–22.
Economic overview
6 September 2022
Global outlook worsened by rising inflation and lower Chinese growth.
Seasonal conditions
6 September 2022
Global production conditions deteriorate due to drought. Favourable growing conditions continue across much of Australia.
Wheat
6 September 2022
World wheat prices to remain high reflecting tight global supply.
Coarse grains
6 September 2022
Tightening global feed grain supply to put upward pressure on prices.
Oilseeds
6 September 2022
Rising global oilseeds supply is expected to weigh on canola prices.
Horticulture
6 September 2022
Favourable growing conditions and high prices to boost value.
Natural Fibres
6 September 2022
Decreased discretionary spending to lower demand for luxury garments.
Beef and veal
6 September 2022
Slower restocking to see prices fall from record highs
Sheep meat
6 September 2022
Sheep saleyard prices to fall due to rising supply of finished animals for slaughter.
Dairy
6 September 2022
Record high farmgate milk price driven by competition between processors.
Featured articles
Foot-and-mouth disease
Summary of foot-and-mouth disease risks and potential economic impacts.
China's meat import demand
Analysis of China's meat import demand in 2022.
Australian rice markets in 2020
Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.
African swine fever
Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.
Water market outlook
Provides a summary of water market conditions and the outlook for allocation prices in the sMDB
If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.
| Document | File size |
|---|---|
| Agricultural Commodities Report – September 2022 PDF | 2.33 MB |
If you have difficulty accessing these files, please visit web accessibility.
Previous reports are also available for download.
The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports.
Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply. Each edition of the report factors in how changes to this outlook affect Australian producers and the value of their produce. Important risks to the outlook are also considered and discussed in each report.
A ‘medium term’ (5 year) outlook is published each year in the March edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. Each June, September and December edition contains a short-term outlook. In June, the forecast period is to the end of the next Australian financial year (July to June). In September and December, the forecast period is to the end of the current Australian financial year.
Recent research
Introducing ABARES historical agricultural forecast database
Published 14 April 2021.
This paper provides a summary and analysis of forecast performance using ABARES newly released historical agricultural forecast database.
Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts
Published 3 March 2020.
A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.
Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid
Published 3 March 2020.
This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.