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Agricultural outlook

The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports. Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply.

Agricultural overview

6 December 2022

The gross value of agricultural production is forecast to exceed $80 billion in 2022-23. This is the second year it has exceeded this level.

Gross value to exceed $80 billion for a second year.

Read more about Agricultural overview

Australian crop report

6 December 2022

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Second highest winter crop production expected in 2022–23, but with mixed prospects around the country.

Read more about Australian crop report

Get the data

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Forecasts and historical statistics.

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Economic overview

6 December 2022

3.2% Global economic growth in 2022

Global outlook worsened by persistent inflation and lower Chinese growth.

Read more about Economic overview

Seasonal conditions

6 December 2022

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Global production conditions deteriorate due to drought. Favourable growing conditions continue across much of Australia.

Read more about Seasonal conditions

Outlook for crops

6 December 2022

The value of Australian crop production is forecast to reach $51 billion in 2022–23, just below the record high value in 2021–22

Second-highest value of crop production on record

Read more about crops

Outlook for livestock

6 December 2022

$34 billions value of production in 2022-23

Value of livestock production to remain steady

Read more about livestock

Featured articles

Foot-and-mouth disease

Summary of foot-and-mouth disease risks and potential economic impacts.

Summary of foot-and-mouth disease risks and potential economic impacts.

Read more about Foot-and-mouth disease

China's meat import demand

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Analysis of China's meat import demand in 2022.

Read more about China's meat import demand

Australian rice markets in 2020

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Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.

Read more about Australian rice markets in 2020

Meat consumption

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Analysis of global meat consumption trends.

Read more about Meat consumption

African swine fever

Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.

Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.

Read more about African swine fever

Water market outlook

Provides a summary of water market conditions and the outlook for allocation prices in the sMDB

Read more about Water market outlook

If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.

Download

Agricultural Commodities Report – December 2022 (PDF 1.6 MB)

If you have difficulty accessing these files, please visit web accessibility.

Previous reports are also available for download.

The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports.

Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply. Each edition of the report factors in how changes to this outlook affect Australian producers and the value of their produce. Important risks to the outlook are also considered and discussed in each report.

A ‘medium term’ (5 year) outlook is published each year in the March edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. Each June, September and December edition contains a short-term outlook. In June, the forecast period is to the end of the next Australian financial year (July to June). In September and December, the forecast period is to the end of the current Australian financial year.

Recent research

Introducing ABARES historical agricultural forecast database

Published 14 April 2021.

This paper provides a summary and analysis of forecast performance using ABARES newly released historical agricultural forecast database.

Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts

Published 3 March 2020.

A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.

Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid

Published 3 March 2020.

This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.

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Last updated: 06 December 2022

© Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

We acknowledge the Traditional Owners of country throughout Australia and recognise their continuing connection to land, waters and culture. We pay our respects to their Elders past, present and emerging.