Agricultural outlook

Agricultural commodities vol. 10 no. 2

Agricultural overview

15 September 2020

Farm production forecast to rebound following drought.

Farm production forecast to rebound following drought.

Australian crop report

8 September 2020

The opening to the winter cropping season in 2020–21 was generally very favourable.

The opening to the winter cropping season in 2020–21 was generally very favourable.

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Global economic growth is assumed to be 3% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020.

Forecasts and historical statistics.

Economic overview

15 September 2020

Global economy to enter recession in 2020.

Economic crisis deepens through 2020.

Seasonal conditions

15 September 2020

Global production conditions generally favourable. Excellent finish likely for the winter growing season across south-eastern Australia.

Global production conditions generally favourable. Excellent finish likely for the winter growing season across south-eastern Australia.

 

Wheat

15 September 2020

Wheat prices to stay low relecting abundant global supply.

Wheat prices to stay low relecting abundant global supply.

Coarse grains

15 September 2020

Barley prices to rise because of increasing Chinese demand.

Barley prices to rise because of increasing Chinese demand.

Oilseeds

15 September 2020

Oilseed prices to remain low, reflecting constrained global demand and high production.

Oilseed prices to remain low, reflecting constrained global demand and high production.

Sugar

16 June 2020

Sugar prices to remain low due to high world production and stocks.

Sugar prices to remain low due to high world production and stocks.

Natural fibres

15 September 2020

Cotton prices to fall due to high stock levels and competition from synthetics. Wool prices to fall due lower demand for woollen apparel at retail.

Cotton prices to fall due to high stock levels and competition from synthetics. Wool prices to fall due lower demand for woollen apparel at retail.

 

Beef and veal

15 September 2020

Cattle prices to fall marginally, reflecting higher global beef supply.

Cattle prices to fall marginally, reflecting higher global beef supply.

Sheep meat

15 September 2020

Lamb saleyard prices to fall due to demand shock bought about by COVID-19.

Lamb saleyard prices to fall due to demand shock bought about by COVID-19.

Dairy

15 September 2020

Milk prices to fall due to global production increases and demand shocks.

Milk prices to fall due to global production increases and demand shocks.


Featured articles

Australian rice markets in 2020

Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.

Meat consumption

Analysis of global meat consumption trends.

African swine fever

This article examines how ASF is likely to affect global and Australian agricultural markets.

If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.

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Recent research

Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts

Published 3 March 2020.

A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.

 

Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid

Published 3 March 2020.

This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.

 

Performance and accuracy of ABARES agricultural forecasts analysed

Published 13 June 2019.

The Summary of ABARES agricultural forecasting paper analyses the performance and accuracy of ABARES agricultural forecasts in the Australian crop report and Agricultural commodities publications between 2000–01 and 2017–18.

Last reviewed: 15 September 2020
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