Agricultural outlook
Agricultural commodities vol. 10 no. 4
Agricultural overview
2 March 2021
Record value of production in 2020-21 despite challenges from COVID-19.
Australian crop report
16 February 2021
Winter crop production in 2020–21 revised higher due to better than expected yields. Summer crop production also forecast to improve but still remain below average.
Economic overview
2 March 2021
Global Economic recovery underway in 2021.
Seasonal conditions
2 March 2021
Record global crop production despite impact of La Niña. Favourable growing conditions continue across eastern and nothern Australia.
Wheat
2 March 2021
World wheat prices to fall reflecting higher global production.
Coarse grains
2 March 2021
World barley prices to fall because of falling world consumption.
Oilseeds
2 March 2021
Oilseed prices supported by global demand outstripping supply.
Natural fibres
2 March 2021
Cotton prices to increase due to strong import demand and global consumption growth. Wool prices to increase due to stronger demand for woollen apparel.
Wine
2 March 2021
Wine grape prices to be constrained by lower export prices for red wine.
Horticulture
2 March 2021
Production value to fall slightly due to lower prices more than offsetting rising production.
Beef and veal
2 March 2021
Australian cattle prices to fall during the outlook period.
Sheep meat
2 March 2021
Lamb saleyard prices to fall in the medium term as the global supply of red meat increases.
Dairy
2 March 2021
Milk prices to increase in response to stronger global demand and slower supply growth.
Featured articles
Australian rice markets in 2020
Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.
African swine fever
Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.
If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.
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Recent research
Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts
Published 3 March 2020.
A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.
Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid
Published 3 March 2020.
This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.
Performance and accuracy of ABARES agricultural forecasts analysed
Published 13 June 2019.
The Summary of ABARES agricultural forecasting paper analyses the performance and accuracy of ABARES agricultural forecasts in the Australian crop report and Agricultural commodities publications between 2000–01 and 2017–18.