The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports. Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply.
Overviews
Agricultural overview
5 December 2023
Value to fall 17% from record value of $94 billion in 2022-23.
Economic overview
5 December 2023
Global outlook subdued due to high interest rates.
Seasonal conditions
5 December 2023
Australian 2023-24 agricultural production expected to decline from El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole induced hotter & drier conditions.
Farm performance forecast
5 December 2023
Falling prices and drier conditions leading to declining incomes.
Outlook for crops
5 December 2023
Value of crop production to fall from record highs due to lower production.
Outlook for livestock
5 December 2023
Falling value of production reflects lower prices.
Read more about the outlook for livestock and livestock products
Australian crop report
5 December 2023
National winter crop production to fall from record highs in 2023–24.
If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.
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Agricultural Commodities Report – December 2023 (PDF 3.8 MB)
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Previous reports are also available for download.
The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports.
Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply. Each edition of the report factors in how changes to this outlook affect Australian producers and the value of their produce. Important risks to the outlook are also considered and discussed in each report.
A ‘medium term’ (5 year) outlook is published each year in the March edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. Each June, September and December edition contains a short-term outlook. In June, the forecast period is to the end of the next Australian financial year (July to June). In September and December, the forecast period is to the end of the current Australian financial year.
Featured articles
Livestock prices
5 December 2023
The significant fall in livestock saleyard prices over recent months has been driven by a large increase in animal supply and a fall in demand.
Cattle feedlot industry
5 December 2023
The growing feedlot industry plays an important role in smoothing Australian beef production and export availability.
Meat processing labour
Slaughter volumes correlated with meat and livestock prices.
Foot-and-mouth disease
Summary of foot-and-mouth disease risks and potential economic impacts.
China's meat import demand
Analysis of China's meat import demand in 2022.
Australian rice markets in 2020
Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.
African swine fever
Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.
Water market outlook
Provides a summary of water market conditions and the outlook for allocation prices in the sMDB
Recent research
Introducing ABARES historical agricultural forecast database
Published 14 April 2021.
This paper provides a summary and analysis of forecast performance using ABARES newly released historical agricultural forecast database.
Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts
Published 3 March 2020.
A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.
Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid
Published 3 March 2020.
This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.