The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports. Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply.
Agricultural overview
6 December 2022
Gross value to exceed $80 billion for a second year.
Australian crop report
6 December 2022
Second highest winter crop production expected in 2022–23, but with mixed prospects around the country.
Economic overview
6 December 2022
Global outlook worsened by persistent inflation and lower Chinese growth.
Seasonal conditions
6 December 2022
Global production conditions deteriorate due to drought. Favourable growing conditions continue across much of Australia.
Outlook for crops
6 December 2022
Second-highest value of crop production on record
Outlook for livestock
6 December 2022
Value of livestock production to remain steady
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China's meat import demand
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Australian rice markets in 2020
Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.
African swine fever
Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.
Water market outlook
Provides a summary of water market conditions and the outlook for allocation prices in the sMDB
If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.
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Agricultural Commodities Report – December 2022 (PDF 1.6 MB)
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Previous reports are also available for download.
The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports.
Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply. Each edition of the report factors in how changes to this outlook affect Australian producers and the value of their produce. Important risks to the outlook are also considered and discussed in each report.
A ‘medium term’ (5 year) outlook is published each year in the March edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. Each June, September and December edition contains a short-term outlook. In June, the forecast period is to the end of the next Australian financial year (July to June). In September and December, the forecast period is to the end of the current Australian financial year.
Recent research
Introducing ABARES historical agricultural forecast database
Published 14 April 2021.
This paper provides a summary and analysis of forecast performance using ABARES newly released historical agricultural forecast database.
Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts
Published 3 March 2020.
A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.
Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid
Published 3 March 2020.
This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.