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Agricultural outlook

The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports. Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply.

Agricultural overview

14 September 2021

Crop production and saleyard cattle upgrades drive value higher.

Value of farm production forecast to reach a record $73 billion in 2021-22.

Australian crop report

7 September 2021

The opening to the winter cropping season in 2020–21 was generally very favourable.

Winter crop production in 2021–22 is forecast to reach the third highest on record.

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Forecasts and historical statistics.

Forecasts and historical statistics.

Economic overview

14 September 2021

Global Economic recovery underway in  2021.

Strong global economic recovery in 2021 to continue into 2022.

Seasonal conditions

14 September 2021

Record global crop production despite impact of La Niña. Favourable growing conditions continue across eastern and nothern Australia.

Favourable climate outlook supporting near record Australian winter crop production.

 

Wheat

14 September 2021

World wheat prices to rise, reflecting higher global demand and decreased supply from some major exporters.

World wheat prices to increase reflecting lower production in key exporters.

Coarse grains

14 September 2021

World barley proces to rise because of increasing Chinese demand.

Coarse grain prices supported by strong global demand.

Oilseeds

14 September 2021

Oilseed prices supported by global demand outstripping supply.

Higher canola price due to tight global supply.

Natural fibres

14 September 2021

Cotton prices to remain low due to high stock levels and competition from synthetics. Wool prices to fall due lower demand for woollen apparel.

Strong global demand to drive cotton and wool prices higher.

Wine and wine grapes

14 September 2021

Wine grape prices to be constrained by lower export prices for red wine.

The average price of wine grapes is forecast to fall slightly in 2021–22.

Horticulture

14 September 2021

Value of horticultural production to increase due to rising prices offsetting falling production.

Farmgate value of horticultural production forecast to reach a record $12.4 billion in 2021–22.

Beef and veal

14 September 2021

Australian cattle prices to fall during the outlook period.

Herd rebuilding and tight global supply push prices higher.

Sheep meat

14 September 2021

Saleyard proces to fall due to impacts of COVID-19 and dissipating demand resulting from African swine fever.

Strong export demand in the US and the Middle East is expected to support high lamb prices.

Dairy

14 September 2021

Milk prices to increase in response to stronger global demand and slower supply growth.

Stronger global demand is forecast to push the farmgate milk price higher.


Featured articles

Australian rice markets in 2020

Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.

Meat consumption

Analysis of global meat consumption trends.

African swine fever

Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.

Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.

Water market outlook

Provides a summary of water market conditions and the outlook for allocation prices in the sMDB

 
 

If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.

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Agricultural commodities – September 2021 PDF​  77 6.2 MB

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About the Agricultural Commodities Report

The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports.

Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply. Each edition of the report factors in how changes to this outlook affect Australian producers and the value of their produce. Important risks to the outlook are also considered and discussed in each report.

A ‘medium term’ (5 year) outlook is published each year in the March edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. Each June, September and December edition contains a short-term outlook. In June, the forecast period is to the end of the next Australian financial year (July to June). In September and December, the forecast period is to the end of the current Australian financial year.

Recent research

Introducing ABARES historical agricultural forecast database

Published 14 April 2021.

This paper provides a summary and analysis of forecast performance using ABARES newly released historical agricultural forecast database.

 

Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts

Published 3 March 2020.

A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.

 

Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid

Published 3 March 2020.

This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.

Last reviewed: 14 September 2021
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