Agricultural outlook

Agricultural commodities vol. 10 no. 4

Agricultural overview

2 March 2021

Crop production and saleyard cattle upgrades drive value higher.

Record value of production in 2020-21 despite challenges from COVID-19.

Australian crop report

16 February 2021

The opening to the winter cropping season in 2020–21 was generally very favourable.

Winter crop production in 2020–21 revised higher due to better than expected yields. Summer crop production also forecast to improve but still remain below average.

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Forecasts and historical statistics.

Forecasts and historical statistics.

Economic overview

2 March 2021

Global Economic recovery underway in  2021.

Global Economic recovery underway in 2021.

Seasonal conditions

2 March 2021

Record global crop production despite impact of La Niña. Favourable growing conditions continue across eastern and nothern Australia.

Record global crop production despite impact of La Niña. Favourable growing conditions continue across eastern and nothern Australia.

 

Wheat

2 March 2021

World wheat prices to rise, reflecting higher global demand and decreased supply from some major exporters.

World wheat prices to fall reflecting higher global production.

Coarse grains

2 March 2021

World barley proces to rise because of increasing Chinese demand.

World barley prices to fall because of falling world consumption.

Oilseeds

2 March 2021

Oilseed prices supported by global demand outstripping supply.

Oilseed prices supported by global demand outstripping supply.

Natural fibres

2 March 2021

Cotton prices to remain low due to high stock levels and competition from synthetics. Wool prices to fall due lower demand for woollen apparel.

Cotton prices to increase due to strong import demand and global consumption growth. Wool prices to increase due to stronger demand for woollen apparel.

Wine

2 March 2021

Wine grape prices to be constrained by lower export prices for red wine.

Wine grape prices to be constrained by lower export prices for red wine.

Horticulture

2 March 2021

Value of horticultural production to increase due to rising prices offsetting falling production.

Production value to fall slightly due to lower prices more than offsetting rising production.

Beef and veal

2 March 2021

Australian cattle prices to fall during the outlook period.

Australian cattle prices to fall during the outlook period.

Sheep meat

2 March 2021

Saleyard proces to fall due to impacts of COVID-19 and dissipating demand resulting from African swine fever.

Lamb saleyard prices to fall in the medium term as the global supply of red meat increases.

Dairy

2 March 2021

Milk prices to increase in response to stronger global demand and slower supply growth.

Milk prices to increase in response to stronger global demand and slower supply growth.


Featured articles

Australian rice markets in 2020

Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.

Meat consumption

Analysis of global meat consumption trends.

African swine fever

Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.

Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.

If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.

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Recent research

Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts

Published 3 March 2020.

A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.

 

Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid

Published 3 March 2020.

This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.

 

Performance and accuracy of ABARES agricultural forecasts analysed

Published 13 June 2019.

The Summary of ABARES agricultural forecasting paper analyses the performance and accuracy of ABARES agricultural forecasts in the Australian crop report and Agricultural commodities publications between 2000–01 and 2017–18.

Last reviewed: 1 March 2021
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