Agricultural outlook
The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports. Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply.
Agricultural overview
14 September 2021
Value of farm production forecast to reach a record $73 billion in 2021-22.
Australian crop report
7 September 2021
Winter crop production in 2021–22 is forecast to reach the third highest on record.
Economic overview
14 September 2021
Strong global economic recovery in 2021 to continue into 2022.
Seasonal conditions
14 September 2021
Favourable climate outlook supporting near record Australian winter crop production.
Wheat
14 September 2021
World wheat prices to increase reflecting lower production in key exporters.
Coarse grains
14 September 2021
Coarse grain prices supported by strong global demand.
Natural fibres
14 September 2021
Strong global demand to drive cotton and wool prices higher.
Wine and wine grapes
14 September 2021
The average price of wine grapes is forecast to fall slightly in 2021–22.
Horticulture
14 September 2021
Farmgate value of horticultural production forecast to reach a record $12.4 billion in 2021–22.
Beef and veal
14 September 2021
Herd rebuilding and tight global supply push prices higher.
Sheep meat
14 September 2021
Strong export demand in the US and the Middle East is expected to support high lamb prices.
Dairy
14 September 2021
Stronger global demand is forecast to push the farmgate milk price higher.
Featured articles
Australian rice markets in 2020
Analysis of Australian rice markets in 2020.
African swine fever
Containment of African swine fever in China and industrialisation of the Chinese pork industry will impact global markets.
Water market outlook
Provides a summary of water market conditions and the outlook for allocation prices in the sMDB
If you have any feedback about this publication or our forecasts, please contact us at ABARES Commodities.
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| Document | Pages | File size |
|---|---|---|
Agricultural commodities – September 2021 PDF  |
77 | 6.2 MB |
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About the Agricultural Commodities Report
The Agricultural Commodities Report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia's agricultural production and exports.
Underpinning the forecasts contained in the Agricultural Commodities Report are ABARES outlook for global commodity prices, demand and supply. Each edition of the report factors in how changes to this outlook affect Australian producers and the value of their produce. Important risks to the outlook are also considered and discussed in each report.
A ‘medium term’ (5 year) outlook is published each year in the March edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report. Each June, September and December edition contains a short-term outlook. In June, the forecast period is to the end of the next Australian financial year (July to June). In September and December, the forecast period is to the end of the current Australian financial year.
Recent research
Introducing ABARES historical agricultural forecast database
Published 14 April 2021.
This paper provides a summary and analysis of forecast performance using ABARES newly released historical agricultural forecast database.
Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts
Published 3 March 2020.
A challenge for medium-term forecasts of agricultural markets is that no reliable seasonal climate forecasts exist beyond the current growing season in southern Australia. ABARES is trialling a scenario approach to provide insights into the future state of Australian agriculture.
Farmers’ terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid
Published 3 March 2020.
This paper reports on the results of an update to the way ABARES calculates the farmers' terms of trade (FToT) indicators. This includes updates to the price indexes for farm outputs and inputs to production, and measures of farm costs and net farm returns.