Australian plantation log availability – the next 40 years
Forestry is a long-term endeavour, with trees taking decades to reach maturity. Projections of plantation log availability provide insight into potential log production over the next four decades, enabling growers, processors and policymakers plan investment, manage risk and support the sector’s competitiveness and resilience. Australia’s softwood plantation log availability is expected to increase steadily from 2025 to 2065. Hardwood plantation log availability is more uncertain and is generally expected to fall over the next two decades, as growers consider alternative uses for short-rotation pulplog plantations amid volatile and increasingly competitive global woodchip market.
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Overview
Australia’s plantation estate comprises softwood and hardwood plantations that produce both sawlogs and pulplogs. Understanding trends in sawlog and pulplog production provides insight into the availability of inputs for domestic processing, demand for domestic processing capacity, supply of domestically produced wood products for construction and other industries, and trends in international trade.
Key findings
- Softwood plantation log availability is projected to increase steadily from around 15 million cubic meters a year in the 2025–29 period to a peak of around 23 million cubic metres a year in 2050–2054, driven largely by higher sawlog availability.
- Softwood sawlog availability is projected to exceed 16 million cubic metres a year by 2050–2054 (around 60% higher than in 2025–2029) and, if realised, would represent the largest annual softwood sawlog harvest in Australia’s history.
- Hardwood plantation log availability is projected to decline from around 12 million cubic metres a year in 2025–2029 to around 9 million cubic metres a year by 2040–2044, driven by lower pulplog availability amid challenging international woodchip market conditions.
- Hardwood sawlog availability may increase, with current projections indicating volumes in 2055-2059 could be around four times higher than 2019-2024 actual harvest levels. Longer-term hardwood sawlog projections remain uncertain and will depend on a combination of market and structural changes.
- Log availability projections represent the annual volume of logs potentially available for harvest nationally in each 5-year period, based on the best available information. Productivity improvements and new domestic pulplog markets could further increase future log availability beyond these projections, while climate impacts remain a key downside risk which could reduce future log availability.