Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 1 May 2025

In the week ending 30 April 2025, low-pressure systems and troughs brought rainfall to some northern, south-eastern, and south-western regions of the country. High-pressure systems kept much of the remainder of Australia largely dry.

• The Northern Tropics, including Cape York Peninsula and the far north of the Northern Territory saw rainfall totals of between 5-200 millimetres, while northern Western Australia remained dry.
• Rainfall totals of between 5-150 millimetres were also recorded across much of New South Wales and parts of southern Queensland. In contrast, some areas of Victoria, Tasmania, and southwest Western Australia saw lower rainfall totals of between 5-50 millimetres.
• Little to no rainfall was observed across much of the remainder of the country

Cropping regions were largely dry, with the exception of parts of eastern Australia:

• Northern, central and southwest New South Wales cropping regions received between 5-100 millimetres. In Victoria and parts of southern Queensland, 5-50 millimetres of rainfall was recorded.
• Cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, and northern Queensland saw little to no rainfall over the period.
• Moving into the winter growing season, a lack of rainfall in the recent week will likely delay germination of dry sown winter crops in areas where upper layer soil moisture is low. However the rainfall recorded across central and northern New South Wales and parts of southern Queensland will likely support the germination and establishment of early sown winter crops.

Rainfall for the week ending 1 May 2025

Over the 8 days to 8 May 2025, low-pressure systems are expected to bring limited rainfall to northern, eastern and the far southwest of Australia.

• Falls of between 5-50 millimetres are likely for parts of the northern tropics, including the north of the Northern Territory and northern Queensland, as well as parts of eastern Queensland and New South Wales, southern Victoria, and the far southwest of Western Australia.
  • Isolated areas of northeast Queensland are expected to up to 300 millimetres of rainfall.
• Tasmania is expected to receive falls of between 10-100 millimetres, with higher rainfall totals in the west.
• High-pressure systems are expected to keep much of the remainder of Australia relatively dry.

Rainfall totals over the coming week are forecast to be low across most cropping regions.

• Rainfall totals of between 5-10 millimetres are expected across parts of northern Queensland and the far southwest of Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions.
• If realised, the continued lack of autumn rainfall will continue to present a downside risk to the timely planting of winter crops particularly in those areas of southern New South Wales, western Victoria and South Australia with low stored soil moisture.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 1 May to 8 May 2025

Rainfall during April 2025 was highly variable:

• Rainfall was very much below average to below average across parts of south-eastern Australia, including large areas of southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania, as well as coastal regions of west Western Australia
• Above average to very much above average rainfall was recorded across much of the Northern Territory and Queensland, as well as much of southern Western Australia, and coastal and inland regions of New South Wales.
• The remainder of Australia saw generally average April rainfall.

In cropping regions, April rainfall was variable, with generally below average and average rainfall in the southeast and average to above rainfall in the north and west:

• Much of South Australia, Victoria, southern New South Wales and the west of Western Australia observed very much below average to average rainfall.
• In Queensland, northern New South Wales and the remainder of Western Australia average to very much above average rainfall was experienced over the period.

As we transition into the remainder of the autumn season, the focus shifts from summer crop and pasture growth across Northern Australia to preparing for the winter cropping season and peak pasture production in the south. This is especially crucial in regions that received below average rainfall in April. Given a below median rainfall outlook for May, and May to July period in parts of the southern regions, this necessitates a careful monitoring and strategic planning to mitigate potential impacts on upcoming winter crops and managing ground cover and livestock numbers.

Rainfall percentiles for April 2025