Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 7 August 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 6 August 2025, low-pressure systems brought rainfall totals of up to 200 millimetres to parts of eastern and south-western Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall was mixed. Western Australia and northern New South Wales saw 5-50 millimetres, while South Australia and southern Queensland saw 5-25 millimetres. Remaining areas remained largely dry.
  • A lack of rainfall across parts of southern New South Wales presents a downside production risk with some areas experiencing dry conditions in June and July.
• Over the coming eight days, rainfall is expected to be low across cropping regions in the southeast.
  • Falls of between 10-50 millimetres are forecast across Western Australia and Queensland.
  • Meanwhile, falls of between 5-15 millimetres are expected in northern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. In contrast, much of southern New South Wales is expected to remain largely dry.
  • If realised these falls are likely to be sufficient to support the growth and development in most areas and see some ongoing improvement in contribute to a soil moisture reserves in Queensland and South Australia. However, the expected lack of rainfall across southern New South Wales, continues to present a downside production risk for crops and pastures.
• Above average rainfall during July across parts of southern Australia, including South Australia and Victoria, would have provide sufficient rainfall to support development, however continued timely rainfall is required to support yield potential of crops in regions that have seen recent dry conditions include southern New South Wales. Both, upper layer and lower layer soil moisture levels in southern cropping regions have improved compared to June 2025, however lower layer soil moisture remains below average to extremely low in some areas.
• Below average pasture growth for the three months to July 2025 across large areas of Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, and north-western and southern New South Wales will likely see graziers in these regions actively destocking or remaining reliant on supplemental feed to maintain current stocking rates and production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 551 gigalitres (GL) between 31 July 2025 and 07 August 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 14,471 GL, equivalent to 65% of total storage capacity. This is 20% or 3,632 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $266/ML on 31 July 2025 to $269/ML on 07 August 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.