Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 14 August 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 13 August 2025, low-pressure systems and cold fronts brought rainfall to parts of eastern and south-western Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall was mixed. Western Australia and Queensland saw 5 - 50 millimetres, while Victoria saw 5-15 millimetres. Remaining areas stayed largely dry.
  • The lack of rainfall across parts of southern New South Wales is likely to see further declines in soil moisture levels with potential impacts on plant growth rates and yield potentials.
• Over the coming eight days to 21 August 2025, rainfall is expected to be low across cropping regions in the east.
  • Falls of between 10-25 millimetres are forecast across Western Australia.
  • Meanwhile, falls of between 5-15 millimetres are expected in Victoria and South Australia. In contrast, much of New South Wales and Queensland is expected to remain largely dry.
  • If realised these falls are likely to be sufficient to support the growth and development in most areas and see some ongoing improvement in contribute to a soil moisture reserves in Western Australia. However, the expected lack of rainfall across southern New South Wales, continues to present a downside production risk for crops and pastures.
• The national rainfall outlook for September to November 2025 indicates an increased probability of above median rainfall across much of central and eastern Australia. Most western regions are likely to see below average to average rainfall.
  • If realised, the expectation of average to above average September to November 2025 rainfall across most winter cropping regions is likely be sufficient to support the growth and development of winter crops, and the timely planting and establishment of dryland summer crops in eastern Australia.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 177 gigalitres (GL) between 07 August 2025 and 14 August 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 14,647 GL, equivalent to 66% of total storage capacity. This is 20% or 3,547 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $269/ML on 07 August 2025 to $287/ML on 14 August 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.