Key issues
- For the week ending 10 October 2023, a trough brought heavy rainfall, up to 100 millimetres, and damaging winds to southeastern Australia earlier in the week. Cold fronts brought showers to western Tasmania. A high-pressure system kept the remainder of the country dry (see Section 1.1).
- Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of up to 50 millimetres were recorded in New South Wales and up to 25 millimetres in parts of eastern Victoria. Little to no rainfall was recorded in the remaining cropping areas. Given the lack of rainfall across most cropping regions and continuous decline in soil moisture reserves, together with above average daytime temperatures, there is an increased risk of reductions in crop yields at harvest (see Section 1.1).
- The northern Australia rainfall onset is yet to occur. Between 1 September and 10 October 2023, the only region that recorded an early onset with at least 50 millimetres of rain is the coastal northeast Queensland (see Section 1.2).
- An El Niño and a positive IOD event are currently underway. Their effect on spring rainfall is currently being observed, with September 2023 rainfall being the lowest on record for Australia. Australia's national area-average mean temperature for September were also 2.43 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average, the third warmest on record for September. The El Niño is expected to last till end of summer, while positive IOD is expected to remain active till at least December (see Section 1.3).
- Drier than normal conditions are expected in November for large areas of Australia. Across cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres in New South Wales, Queensland, and in parts of southern Western Australia and Victoria. Given the lack of rainfall in recent weeks, declining soil moisture levels, and above average daytime temperatures, expected low rainfall totals continues to represent a significant downside production risk for both winter and summer crop production as well as pasture growth (see Section 1.4).
- Between November 2023 to January 2024, close to equal chances of above or below median rainfall for much of Australia, except for in Tasmania, eastern Queensland and southern Victoria where below median fall are more likely. There is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 25 and 200 millimetres across much of Australia. If these falls are realised, it is likely to be sufficient to support late spring and summer pasture growth across eastern and northern Australia. While the dry start to spring has limited early planting of summer crops, the expected rainfall may be sufficient to allow for later summer crop planting (see Section 1.4).
- Over the next 8-days, a cold front and trough will generate showers across the southern Victoria, western Tasmania and parts of southern New South Wales. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere. Across most cropping regions, falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for eastern Victoria while little to no rainfall is expected elsewhere, which is likely to arrest any further declines in yield (see Section 1.6).
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 27 September 2023 and 4 October 2023 by 43 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 20 729 GL. This is 6 percent or 1236 GL less than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $216 on 28 September 2023 to $202 on 5 October 2023. Prices are lower in the Goulburn-Broken and regions above the Barmah choke due to the binding of the Goulburn intervalley trade limit and Barmah choke trade constraint.
Climate
For the week ending 10 October 2023, a trough brought heavy rainfall, up to 100 millimetres, and damaging winds to southeastern Australia earlier in the week. Cold fronts brought showers to western Tasmania. A high-pressure system kept the remainder of the country dry.
Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of up to 50 millimetres were recorded in New South Wales and up to 25 millimetres in parts of eastern Victoria. This rainfall would have boosted the subsoil moisture reserve for crops and pastures. Little to no rainfall was received in the remaining cropping areas. Given the lack of rainfall across most cropping regions and continuous decline in soil moisture reserves, together with above average daytime temperatures and below average night-time temperatures, there continues to be an increased risk of reductions in crop yields at harvest.
Rainfall for the week ending 10 October 2023
Issued: 11/10/2023
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/
The timing of Northern Australia rainfall onset is important indicator for seasonal pasture growth and potential livestock production. The rainfall onset gives an indication of the first significant rain of at least 50 millimetres after 1 September to stimulate plant growth after the northern dry season. Between 1 September and 10 October 2023, much of northern Australia are yet to receive at least 50 millimetres of rainfall. The only region that has recorded an early onset with at least 50 millimetres of rain is the coastal northeast Queensland.
Northern rainfall totals: 1 September to 10 October 2023
The climate drivers with the largest potential impact on Australia’s climate patterns are the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). These climate drivers are likely to influence pasture growth across southern Australia and the growth and yield prospects for winter crops.
The SAM is currently in neutral stage and is expected to remain in the neutral stage in the coming weeks. During Spring, neutral SAM is associated with average climate conditions in southern Australia.
The MJO is currently weak and has minimal effect on northern Australia rainfall, where its effect is mainly observed.
An El Niño and a positive IOD event are currently underway. When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia. Their effect on spring rainfall is currently being observed, with September 2023 rainfall being the lowest on record for Australia. Australia's national area-average mean temperature for September were also 2.43 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average, the third warmest on record for September. The El Niño is expected to last till end of summer, while positive IOD is expected to remain active till at least December.
ENSO and IOD forecast
These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamic (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal, and longer-lead climate outlooks. For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest rainfall outlook for November 2023 indicates drier than average conditions are expected across large areas of northern, eastern and southern Australia.
The ACCESS-S climate model suggests that for November 2023, there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 10 and 100 millimetres across eastern New South Wales, southeast Queensland, and southern Victoria and northern Western Australia and Northern Territory. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 millimetres are expected across western Tasmania.
Across cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres in New South Wales, Queensland, and in parts of southern Western Australia and Victoria. November rainfall totals are expected to be below 10 millimetres for the remaining cropping regions.
These relatively low expected rainfall totals continue to represent a significant downside production risk for both winter and summer crop production as well as pasture growth, particularly given the lack of rainfall in recent weeks and declining soil moisture levels across large areas of the cropping regions.
Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring in November 2023
The rainfall outlook for November 2023 to January 2024 suggests that there is close to equal chances of above or below median rainfall for much of Australia, except for in Tasmania, eastern Queensland and southern Victoria where below median fall are more likely.
Across cropping regions, below median rainfall is more likely northern Queensland and close to equal chances of above or below median rainfall is likely in the remaining cropping areas.
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2023 to January 2024
The outlook for November 2023 to January 2024 suggests there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 25 and 200 millimetres across much of Australia. The main exceptions being South Australia and western and central parts of Western Australia where below 25 millimetres of rainfall are expected. Meanwhile, across tropical northern Australia, coastal New South Wales and western Tasmania rainfall total in excess of 300 millimetres are expected.
In cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 25 and 200 millimetres across New South Wales, Queensland and eastern Victoria while less than 50 millimetres of rainfall are likely across remaining cropping regions.
If the rainfall is realised, it is likely to be sufficient to support late spring and summer pasture growth across eastern and northern Australia. Additional while the dry start to spring has limited early planting of summer crops, this rain may be sufficient to allow for later summer crop planting.
Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring November 2023 to January 2024
Maximum temperature predictions for the week ending 22 October 2023 indicates warmer than average conditions are expected across much of southern Australia, with the highest maximum temperature anomalies expected southern Western Australia. Across cropping regions, temperature up to 5°C above average are expected for this time of year are.
These well above average predicted temperatures, in addition to the lack of recent rainfall, declining soil moisture levels and a lack of forecast rainfall (see Section 1.6) will likely contribute to increase moisture stress to the winter crops and spring pastures. The combination of reduced crop prospects and strong fodder prices may be providing producers in regions with declining grain yield potentials with a strong incentive to cut some crops that were planted for grain production for hay. In some regions, particularly in Western Australia, South Australia, Queensland and northern New South Wales, some crops may not have produced sufficient biomass to warrant fodder conservation and may instead be used for grazing to allow for economic return to some farmers as they replace some of their grain feeding with the grazing matter.
Predicted maximum temperature anomaly for 16 to 22 October 2023
Over the 8-days to 19 October 2023, a cold front and trough will generate showers across the southern Victoria, western Tasmania and parts of southern New South Wales. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere.
Across cropping regions, falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for eastern Victoria while little to no rainfall is expected elsewhere, which is likely to arrest any further declines in yield.
Total forecast rainfall for the period 12 October 2023 to 19 October 2023
Issued 12/10/2023
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
The Tableau dashboard may not meet accessibility requirements. For information about the contents of these dashboards contact ABARES.
Commodities
Information on weekly price changes in agricultural commodities is now available at the Weekly commodity price update.