Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 12 March 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 11 March 2026, low-pressure systems and tropical lows brought heavy rainfall to of the far north and eastern Australia.
  • Severe weather and flood warnings remain in place throughout parts of the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales. Flash flooding is set to see major disruptions to supply chains persisting, with extensive road closures across Queensland and western New South Wales. The Australian Rail Track Corporation reports that damage to east-west railway infrastructure is likely to see the corridor remain closed for several weeks.
• Over the 8-days to 19 March 2026, rainfall is forecast for much of the northern, central, and south-eastern Australia
  • Low rainfall totals (1-10 millimetres) are forecast for Queensland, northern New South Wales, and much of Western Australia.
  • Higher falls are forecast for much of southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the east of Western Australia (10-25 millimetres).
• The national rainfall outlook for April to June 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across much of Australia, with exceptions in northern Queensland.
• The increased chances of below average forecast rainfall for large areas of southern Australia are expected to present an increased downside production risk for autumn pasture growth and 2026–27 winter crop production. However, the increased chance of below average forecast rainfall in parts of northern Australia is likely to reduce the risk of further flooding following a very active higher risk weather season to date.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 26 gigalitres (GL) between 05 March 2026 and 12 March 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 10,624 GL, equivalent to 48% of total storage capacity. This is 17% or 2,126 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $445/ML on 05 March 2026 to $489/ML on 12 March 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.