Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 23 October 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 22 October 2025, cold fronts and low-pressure troughs brought rainfall to parts of northern, eastern and southern Australia.
  • Rainfall was highly variable across winter cropping regions, while parts of Queensland, northern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia saw up to 50 millimetres.
  • Ongoing dry conditions across northern Victoria and southern New South Wales continue to present an increased downside production risk for pastures and winter crops which are in their final yield-determining growth stages.
  • Falls across Queensland and northern New South Wales may have resulted in some winter crop harvesting delays but would have provided a timely boost in soil moisture for the planting and establishment of summer crops. Rainfall across South Australia and western Victoria is likely to have provided a boost in soil moisture levels, benefiting some winter crops and pastures.
• Over the coming eight days to 30 October 2025, some rainfall is expected across most cropping regions. However, cropping regions in south-western Queensland, north-western New South Wales and much of Western Australia are forecast to receive little to no rainfall over the period.
  • If realised, falls in southern cropping regions would provide some much-needed moisture for crop and pasture growth but may be too late to prevent declines in expected crop yields in some areas.
• The national rainfall outlook for November 2025 to January 2026 indicates an increased probability of above median rainfall across much of eastern Australia.
  • If realised, above median rainfall would support late spring and summer pasture growth across eastern Australia. Additionally, these expected above average falls are likely to be sufficient to support above average yield expectations for summer crops.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 158 gigalitres (GL) between 16 October 2025 and 23 October 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 15,104 GL, equivalent to 68% of total storage capacity. This is 12% or 2,062 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $319/ML on 16 October 2025 to $316/ML on 23 October 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.