Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 5 February 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 4 February 2026, rainfall was recorded across northern regions of Australia, while central and most southern areas remained comparably dry.
  • Active wet season troughs and a tropical low, brought widespread falls of between 25 and 150 millimetres to the tropical north of Australia, while falls in excess of 150 millimetres were recorded across the north of the Northern Territory.
    • Continued rainfall across northern Queensland may have exacerbated flooding impacts and disrupted recovery efforts. Meanwhile rainfall across Queensland cropping regions is expected to support soil moisture storage and benefit crop and pasture production.
    • Widespread heavy rainfall across the north of the Northern Territory has led to issuing of flood warning across numerous river catchments. These falls are likely to provide significant longer-term benefits to pasture production.
• Over the 8-days to 12 February 2026, rainfall is forecast for the north, centre and east.
  • If realised continued heavy forecast rainfall across flood warning areas of northern Australia may exacerbate flooding and continue to slow recovery efforts. Outside of flood affected regions these substantial forecast falls are likely to support soil moisture levels, replenish water supplies and boost pasture availability and benefit the growth of summer crops.
• Rainfall was highly variable across Australia during January 2026, with well below average rainfall across much of central and south-eastern Australia. In contrast, parts of the north, west and far southeast saw well above average rainfall.
• Pasture growth for the three months to January 2026 has been mixed across Australia. Above average rainfall totals resulted in average to extremely high pasture growth across large parts of northern Australia. Below average to extremely low pasture growth was recorded across parts of eastern and central Australia.
• Soil moisture models indicate low soil moisture levels in much of central and southern Australia, with above average soil moisture modelled in northern Queensland, the north of the Northern Territory, and parts of eastern Western Australia.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 308 gigalitres (GL) between 29 January 2026 and 5 February 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 11,454 GL, equivalent to 52% of total storage capacity. This is 19% or 2,708 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $440/ML on 29 January 2026 to $426/ML on 5 February 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.