Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 14 May 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 13 May 2026, cold fronts brought some rainfall across parts of the southeast, while high pressure systems brought rainfall to the northeast.
  • Most cropping regions of Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland saw little to no rainfall, with light falls recorded across parts of Victoria and South Australia.
  • A continuation of mainly dry conditions across much of Queensland and New South Wales is leading to further declines in soil moisture levels and is expected to result in a significant decline in the area planted to winter crops during 2026–27.
• Over the 8 days to 21 May 2026, low pressure troughs and rainbands are expected to bring rainfall to parts of southeast, central and northwest Australia:
  • Falls of 15-50 millimetres are forecast for much of the southeast, including South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. Falls in Queensland are forecast to up to 25mm.
    • If realised, these expected falls are likely to provide a timely boost to soil moisture levels across south-eastern cropping areas following a period of dry conditions in many regions. These falls are also expected to support the germination and growth of early sown winter crops and encourage further plantings.
    • In areas across northern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland that have experienced ongoing rainfall deficiencies, these expected falls will provide a timely boost to soil moisture levels but may not be sufficient to encourage the widespread planting of winter crops.
• The national rainfall outlook for June to August 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across large areas of southern and eastern Australia.
  • Below average expected rainfall totals across most southern growing regions are likely be sufficient to support the establishment and growth of winter crops. However, below average expected falls for north-eastern growing regions continues to represent an ongoing downside production risk for the 2026–27 winter cropping season.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 19 gigalitres (GL) between 07 May 2026 and 14 May 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 10,003 GL, equivalent to 45% of total storage capacity. This is 16% or 1,901 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $416/ML on 07 May 2026 to $390/ML on 14 May 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.