Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 7 May 2026

Key issues

• the week ending 6 May 2026, cold fronts brough rainfall across much of the southeast and some southern areas.
  • Most cropping regions in Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia recorded falls of 10-50 millimetres.
  • In contrast, most cropping regions of Queensland and Western Australia saw little to no rainfall.
    • A continuation of mainly dry conditions across much of Queensland is leading to further declines in soil moisture levels and is expected to result in a significant decline in the area planted to winter crops during 2026–27.
• Over the 8 days to 14 May 2026, low pressure systems and cold fronts are expected to bring rainfall to parts of the east and north:
  • Low rainfall totals (0-10 millimetres) are forecast for all cropping regions.
    • Ongoing expected dry conditions across Queensland and northern New South Wales continues to present a significant downside production risk for the 2026–27 winter cropping season.
• Rainfall during April 2026 was generally extremely low to below average in eastern and central regions, and above average across parts of the north and west. Well below average rainfall outcomes across southern Queensland and New South Wales have reduced soil moisture storage level ahead of the opening of the winter cropping season and contributed to well below average pasture production.
• Pasture growth for the three months to April 2026 has been mixed, with much of north-eastern and central Australia seeing robust pasture growth but below average growth was evident across large areas of eastern, northern and western Australia. Soil moisture models indicate broadly average soil moisture storage with exceptions in parts of eastern Australia and isolated western areas.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 57 gigalitres (GL) between 30 April 2026 and 07 May 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 9,984 GL, equivalent to 45% of total storage capacity. This is 15% or 1,822 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $438/ML on 30 April 2026 to $416/ML on 07 May 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.