Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 26 June 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 25 June 2025 cold fronts and low-pressure systems brought rainfall to parts of southern and north-eastern Australia.
  • Across cropping regions rainfall totals of between 5-50 millimetres occurred over much of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. The Mallee regions of South Australia and Victoria, parts of northern New South Wales and Queensland stayed dry.
  • Further rainfall will be required across parts of southern Western Australia, and the Mallee regions in South Australia and Victoria in the coming weeks to support the establishment of newly germinated crops.
• Over the coming eight days, rainfall is expected across much of eastern and south-western Australia, while central regions are likely to stay dry.
  • In Western Australian, Queensland and northern New South Wales cropping regions between 5-25 millimetres is expected over this period. If realised, this should provide sufficient moisture to support the establishment and growth of winter crops.
  • Little to no rainfall is forecast for cropping regions in South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales. This is likely to present an escalating downside production risk for winter crops across the Mallee regions of South Australia and Victoria that have received sufficient rainfall to germinate dry sown crops but little follow-up rainfall to support their establishment.
• The national rainfall outlook for July to September 2025 indicates an increased probability of above median rainfall across much of inland and northern Australia. However, some southern regions are likely to see below median rainfall.
  • If realised, the expectation of close to average July to September 2025 rainfall across most winter cropping regions is likely be sufficient to support the establishment and growth of winter crops.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 102 gigalitres (GL) between 19 June 2025 and 26 June 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 13,001 GL, equivalent to 58% of total storage capacity. This is 25% or 4,324 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $311/ML on 19 June 2025 to $301/ML on 26 June 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.