Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 12 February 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 11 February 2026, weather systems including Tropical Cyclone Mitchell brought rainfall to much of Australia.
  • Tropical Cyclone Mitchell hugged the Western Australian north-western coastline for several days between 6-9 February before making landfall as a tropical low system in the early hours of 10 February near Shark Bay, bringing some destructive winds and widespread falls of between 50 and 150 millimetres.
  • Across northern and central Australia widespread weekly rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres has led to issuing of flood warning across numerous river catchments. At this stage there have been no reports of agricultural losses, with these falls likely to provide significant longer-term benefits to pasture production.
  • Large areas of western and central New South Wales saw falls of between 15-100 millimetres.
• Over the 8-days to 19 February 2026, rainfall is forecast for much of the north and east of Australia.
  • High rainfall totals of 50-150 millimetres are forecast for Queensland, with northern New South Wales expected to 10-100 millimetres.
  • These expected heavier falls across Queensland and northern New South Wales are likely to support soil moisture in summer cropping regions and improve pasture growth.
• The national rainfall outlook for March to May 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across much of southern and central Australia.
  • Despite these expected below average falls, rainfall totals across northern Australia are likely to be sufficient to support summer pasture growth and summer crop yield prospects, particularly given recent heavy rainfall and boosted soil moisture levels.
  • In contrast, these expected well below average falls for much of southern and central Australia represents an increased downside production risk for the upcoming 2026–27 winter cropping season and autumn pasture growth.
• Water levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 175 gigalitres (GL) between 5 February 2026 and 12 February 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 11,171 GL, equivalent to 50% of total storage capacity. This is 20% or 2744 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $426/ML on 5 February to $466/ML on 12 February 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.