Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 9 July 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 8 July 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems brought rainfall to large areas of southern and central Australia. Much of the remainder of Australia was largely dry.
  • Cropping regions in South Australia and southern New South Wales saw 5-50 millimetres of rainfall, with higher rainfall totals observed in Victoria (10-50 millimetres). In northern New South Wales, rainfall of 5-25 millimetres was recorded.
  • Cropping regions of Queensland and Western Australia saw little to no rainfall over the period.
• Over the 8 days to 16 July 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall to parts of south-eastern Australia
  • Across cropping regions, falls of 5-25 millimetres are forecast for Victoria and southern New South Wales, while other regions are expected to remain largely dry.
  • If realised, these expected falls will continue to support the establishment and growth of winter crops in the southeast.
• The national rainfall outlook for August to October 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia.
  • The current rainfall outlook for August to October 2026 suggests below average falls across most cropping regions. However, favourable soil moisture levels across most of Australia’s southern growing regions means that if forecast August through October rainfall totals are realised, these falls are likely be sufficient to support the growth of winter crops. However, below average expected falls for north-eastern growing regions represents an ongoing downside production risk for the 2026–27 winter cropping season.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 695 gigalitres (GL) between 02 July 2026 and 09 July 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 12,032 GL, equivalent to 54% of total storage capacity. This is 10% or 1,264 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke are $426/ML on 09 July 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.