Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 20 August 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 12 August 2026, cold fronts brought rainfall to much of the south, while the northern half of Australia remained largely dry.
  • Meanwhile, heavier falls of between 10-50 millimetres were recorded across most cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and southern and central New South Wales. These falls are expected to benefit crop and pasture growth, and boost soil moisture levels particularly in Western Australia following a relatively dry July.
  • Cropping regions across Queensland were largely dry.
• Over the 8 days to 20 August 2026, rainfall is expected across parts of southern and eastern Australia.
  • Cropping regions in South Australia and Victoria are forecast to see 10-25 millimetres, while remaining southern cropping regions including Western Australia and southern New South Wales are expected to see 1-15 millimetres.
  • In contrast, conditions are expected to remain dry across cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.
• The national rainfall outlook for September to November 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across parts of south-eastern Australia.
  • The current rainfall outlook for September to November 2026 suggests below average falls across most cropping regions in south-eastern Australia, and mixed expected falls in Western Australia. However, favourable soil moisture levels across most of Australia’s southern growing regions means that if forecast spring rainfall totals of between 25-100 millimetres are realised, these falls are likely be sufficient to support the growth of winter crops. However, due to limited stored soil moisture across large areas of northern New South Wales and Queensland, below average expected spring rainfall totals continue to represent an ongoing downside production risk for the 2026–27 winter and summer cropping seasons in these areas.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 381 gigalitres (GL) between 6 August 2026 and 13 August 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 13,452 GL, equivalent to 60% of total storage capacity. This is 8% or 1,209 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $409/ML on 6 August 2026 to $375/ML on 13 August 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.