Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 16 July 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 15 July 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems brought rainfall to parts of southern and central Australia. Much of the remainder of Australia was largely dry.
  • Cropping regions in South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales saw 5- 25 millimetres of rainfall. These moderate falls across south-eastern growing regions will maintain high soil moisture levels which and continue to support the growth of winter crops.
  • Cropping regions of Queensland, northern New South Wales and Western Australia saw little to no rainfall over the period.
• Over the 8 days to 23 July 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall to parts of eastern and southwestern Australia
  • Across cropping regions, falls of 5-50 millimetres are forecast for Western Australia, while other regions are expected to remain largely dry.
  • If realised, these expected falls will provide a timely boost to soil moisture levels in Western Australia following are relatively dry stary to July and continue to support and growth of winter crops and pastures in western regions.
• Rainfall in June 2026 was variable across the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions, leading to differing crop production outcomes. Global production conditions were generally favourable for wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice. However, unfavourable conditions across parts of the United States, India, the European Union and Southeast Asis are weighing on potential global production outcomes for wheat, maize and rice.
  • Global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2026–27 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the June 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production are likely to increase beyond the estimates in the June forecast, due to small improvements in global wheat and maize production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 400 gigalitres (GL) between 9 July 2026 and 16 July 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 12,432 GL, equivalent to 56% of total storage capacity. This is 7% or 983 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $426/ML on 9 July 2026 to $403/ML on 16 July 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.