Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 22 October 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 21 October 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems brought rainfall to large areas of north-eastern Australia, with lighter isolated showers distributed across the country.
  • Cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales saw between 10- 100 millimetres of rainfall over the period.
  • These falls are expected to support summer crop development and pasture growth but are likely to delay winter crop harvest activities.
• Over the eight days from 22 to 29 October 2026, rainfall is forecast across much of the eastern two- thirds of Australia. Much of the north-west of Western Australia is forecast to receive low rainfall or remain dry. Across north-eastern cropping regions, falls are expected to be considerable. In Queensland and northern New South Wales, between 25-150 millimetres of rainfall is forecast. Lower falls of 15-50 millimetres are forecast for Victoria, South Australia, and central and southern New South Wales
  • If realised, these falls are likely to provide a timely boost to soil moisture levels to support pasture growth, winter crop grain filling in the southeast and summer cropping activities in the northeast. However following rainfall across many north-eastern regions last week, these expected falls are likely to further delay winter crop harvest activities in these areas and increase the risk of grain quality downgrades due to excess moisture at harvest.
• Despite the strengthening El Niño, the Bureau of Meteorology’s November 2026 to January 2027 outlook indicates below average rainfall is likely be restricted to parts of the far south-east and the northern tropics. Above average rainfall is more likely across much of western and central Australia, as well as parts of inland and southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.
  • If forecast above average November to January rainfall totals are realised, they are likely to support at least average pasture growth across much of eastern and northern Australia. In Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales these falls are also likely to benefit the growth of early planted summer crops and provide opportunities for later plantings.
• According to the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators September 2026 estimates, taking into account climate and price impacts, broadacre farm profits for 2026–27 at a national level are forecast to be above average (72nd percentile) compared to the past 33 years.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 97 gigalitres (GL) between 15 October 2026 and 22 October 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 14,931 GL, equivalent to 67% of total storage capacity. This is 77 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $349/ML on 15 October 2026 to $324/ML on 22 October 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.