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  • Agricultural forecasting
    • Changes to reporting of marketing year data
    • Farm share and price spread
    • Farmers' terms of trade: Update to farm costs and prices paid
    • Forecasting national grain stocks in times of drought
    • Seasonal climate scenarios for medium-term forecasts
    • Summary of ABARES agricultural forecasting
    • The future of public sector forecasting in Australian agriculture

Changes to reporting of marketing year data

December 2020

ABARES has changed the way that crop balance sheets are reported. From December 2020, all Australian crop balance sheet components (stocks, production, consumption and trade) will be published and forecast on a marketing year basis unless otherwise specified. The marketing year for each crop begins around the time that crop harvesting usually commences. For purposes of aggregation and consistency, ABARES designation of marketing years may differ from those used in particular regions or by other agencies.

The labelling convention for marketing years is the same as that used for financial years. That is, the year listed first begins a marketing year (eg. 2019–20 begins in 2019—see Figure 1).

Figure 1 Naming conventions for Australian crop marketing years

Figure 1 Naming conventions for Australian crop marketing years
Source: ABARES

This change aligns ABARES with international practice. Prior to this, some crop balance sheets reported by ABARES showed production on a financial year basis alongside the other balance sheet components on a marketing year basis. In some instances where financial year and marketing year labels differed, for instance for grain sorghum, this required users to be aware of this convention and account for it in their analysis. In effect, the production shown as having occurred in the previous year needed to be 'pulled forward' to the correct marketing year. This adjustment will no longer be required as all balance sheets will report the production, consumption, trade and stocks for each marketing year, allowing users to sum down the column without requiring any further adjustment.

References

Vogel, F.A & Bange, G.A (1999) Understanding USDA Crop Forecasts, United States Department of Agriculture, Miscellaneous Publication No. 1554, Washington.

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Page last updated: 20 January 2022

We acknowledge the continuous connection of First Nations Traditional Owners and Custodians to the lands, seas and waters of Australia. We recognise their care for and cultivation of Country. We pay respect to Elders past and present, and recognise their knowledge and contribution to the productivity, innovation and sustainability of Australia’s agriculture, fisheries and forestry industries.

Artwork: Protecting our Country, Growing our Future
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