Australian Crop Report December 2025

Second largest winter crop on record expected in 2025–‍26

Australian winter crop production is forecast to increase by 10% to 66.3 million tonnes in 2025–‍26 (Figure 1). This is 35% above the 10-‍year average of 49.2 million tonnes to 2024–‍25, and if realised, will be the second highest result on record. National winter crop production is forecast to increase despite significant variation in growing conditions across states during the winter cropping season.

• Winter crop production is forecast to increase strongly in Western Australia, with total production expected to be the second highest on record.  After a mixed start to the winter cropping season, above average and timely rainfall and a mild spring in most cropping regions have contributed to record high average yields.
• Seasonal conditions in Queensland and northern New South Wales have been favourable, with harvest results showing strong yield outcomes. Total winter crop production in Queensland is expected to be the second highest on record. Below average spring rainfall across southern New South Wales during the critical grain fill windows has impacted yields, weighing on total state production, which is expected to be down 10% year-on-year.
• After a poor start to the winter cropping season, production is forecast to rebound in South Australia and Victoria, following timely winter and spring rainfall and mild spring temperatures. Total winter crop production in South Australia is expected to increase by 63% year on year, while Victorian production is expected to be up 17%.

National winter crop production has been revised higher since the September 2025 Australian Crop Report, reflecting timely spring rainfall at critical growth stages and mild spring temperatures in most winter cropping regions. The exception being southern New South Wales and parts of north-eastern South Australia where below average spring rainfall impacted yield potential. 

• Wheat production is forecast to increase by 4% to 35.6 million tonnes in 2025–26, 29% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Wheat production in Western Australia is forecast to increase by 6% to be the second largest crop on record, while production in both South Australia and Victoria is expected to increase significantly from the previous years’ drought affected levels. Offsetting this is a 14% fall in production in New South Wales, with poor conditions in southern New South Wales weighing on total production.
• Barley production is forecast to increase by 18% to a record 15.7 million tonnes in 2025–26, 33% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. This forecast reflects an estimated 3% increase in area and national average barley yields around 29% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
• Canola production is forecast to increase by 13% to 7.2 million tonnes in 2025–26, driven by both a 6% increase in total area planted and higher yields – with improved conditions in South Australia and Victoria, and excellent conditions in Western Australia where a significant proportion of the national canola crop is grown. Total canola production is expected to be 50% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
• Lentil production is forecast to increase by 51% to a record 1.9 million tonnes in 2025–‍26, driven by a 38% increase in average yields and a 10% increase in area planted, which is also record high. Lentil area in South Australia and Victoria continues to expand, with growers favouring it in rotations due to favourable gross margins and its tolerance to drier conditions.
• Chickpea production is forecast to fall by 7% to 2.1 million tonnes in 2025–‍26, but still be the second largest crop on record. The fall reflects a 10% decrease in average yields, which are still expected to be 45% above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25. Despite mostly favourable seasonal conditions in both Queensland and northern New South Wales, yields have not matched last year’s record results.

Area planted to winter crops in 2025–‍26 is estimated to have increased marginally from the previous year’s record to 25.2 million hectares. A 3% increase in area planted in Western Australia is estimated to have been offset by a 3% decrease in New South Wales. Area planted in Queensland is estimated to have decreased by 1% from the previous year’s record. Total winter crop area planted in South Australia and Victoria is estimated to have been largely unchanged.

Figure 1 Australian winter crop production, 2025–26

Source: ABARES

Summer crop plantings to decrease in 2025–26

Summer crop production is forecast to fall by 15% to 4.4 million tonnes in 2025–‍26 (Figure 2). This represents a 2% downward revision from the September 2025 Australian Crop Report but remains 18% above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25 of 3.8 million tonnes. Area planted to summer crops in 2025–‍26 is forecast to fall 6% to 1.3 million hectares, largely reflecting a decrease in the area planted to rice and cotton.

According to the three-month rainfall outlook (December to February), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 20 November 2025, there is a decreased likelihood of above median rainfall across most eastern cropping regions, with an equal chance of above or below average rainfall. However, despite this relatively neutral rainfall outlook for summer cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales, average to well above average November rainfall in most regions has boosted soil moisture levels.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 4% to 2.6 million tonnes in 2025–‍26 but remain well above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25 of 1.8 million tonnes. The fall reflects an expected decline from the record average yield achieved in 2024–‍25, although at this early-stage yields are forecast to be above average. Late spring rainfall has boosted soil moisture levels and is likely to support late planting of sorghum. 

Production of cotton lint is forecast to fall by 23% to 943 thousand tonnes in 2025–‍26, driven by lower planted area. Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 22% to 406 thousand hectares in 2025–‍26, reflecting reduced planting for both dryland and irrigated cotton. A fall in the area planted to irrigated cotton is being driven by reduced water availability in southern New South Wales. Dryland cotton planting has been limited by below average soil moisture at planting and more favourable returns to other crops, such as sorghum. However, high water availability in the northern Murray-Darling Basin and a relatively neutral rainfall outlook across much of eastern Australia is expected to support above average yields, with the production forecast sitting 9% above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25.

Rice production is forecast to fall by 66% to 178 thousand tonnes in 2025–‍26, reflecting a forecast 64% decline in area planted in New South Wales. The expected decline in area planted is being driven by ongoing dry conditions which have led to a reduction in general security water allocations, and an increase in irrigation water prices.

Figure 2 Australian summer crop production, 2025–‍26

Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 1% to 3.7 million tonnes in 2025–26, and if realised, will be the second highest on record. This is 64% above the 10-year average to 2024–25 of 2.3 million tonnes and represents a 10% upward revision from the September 2025 Australian Crop Report. The upward revision is attributed to higher yields for most winter crops and higher areas planted to chickpeas than previously anticipated.

Growing conditions for winter crops in 2025–26 have been largely favourable across most areas of Queensland. Adequate rainfall and high soil moisture levels at planting saw an optimal start to the cropping season. Favourable rainfall early in the growing season boosted yields for all major winter crops despite below average spring rainfall. Wheat production is forecast to increase in 2025–26 by 1% to 2.3 million tonnes, as higher yields more than offset lower planted area. Barley production is forecast to fall by 7% to 495 thousand tonnes, reflecting a reduction in area planted. Chickpea production is expected to fall by 4% to 910 thousand tonnes as lower yields more than offset expanded planting area. Despite falling, chickpea yields are expected to be well above average, with production to remain 100% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.

The winter crop harvest in Queensland was nearing completion ahead of the recent heavy November rainfall. Relatively dry finishing conditions has provided generally uninterrupted field access.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024–25.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 9% to 2.3 million tonnes in 2025–‍26. This remains 31% above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25 and is a slight upward revision to the September 2025 Australian Crop Report. The upward revision reflects increased area planted to sorghum more than offsetting lower cotton plantings.

The three-month rainfall outlook (December to February), issued by Bureau of Meteorology on 20th November indicates there is a decreased likelihood of above median rainfall across most Queensland cropping regions. However, despite this relatively neutral rainfall outlook, average to well above average November rainfall in most regions has boosted soil moisture levels and is expected to support above average summer crop yields.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 8% to 1.7 million tonnes in 2025–26. Area planted to sorghum is forecast to increase by 11% to 450 thousand hectares, reflecting favourable returns and an extended planting window. Sorghum yields are expected to fall from record levels in 2024–25, but production is still expected to be 22% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.

Cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 16% to 342 thousand tonnes in 2025–26, driven by lower planted area. Area planted to cotton is expected to fall by 14% to 140 thousand hectares, as below average spring rainfall limited planting of dryland cotton. Yields are expected to fall slightly in 2025–26 but remain above average, supporting cotton lint production to be 17% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024–25.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in New South Wales is forecast to fall 10% to 18.3 million tonnes in 2025–‍26, the fourth highest on record. This is a 3% upward revision from the September 2025 Australian Crop Report and is 43% above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25. Seasonal conditions have been highly variable across New South Wales, with favourable conditions resulting in above average yield outcomes in northern cropping regions (with excellent early harvest results) being offset by below average growing season rainfall and disappointing yield outcomes throughout southern New South Wales.

Wheat production in New South Wales is expected to decrease by 14% to 11 million tonnes in 2025–‍26, with the average state yield forecast to be down 10% year-on-year but still 26% above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25. Barley production is expected to be down 3% at 3.3 million tonnes and canola down 11% at 1.7 million tonnes but both still well above the 10-‍year averages to 2024–‍25.

Chickpea production is forecast to fall by 8% to 1.2 million tonnes in 2025–‍26, with a 9% drop in yields offsetting a 2% increase in the area planted. Despite mostly favourable seasonal conditions, yields have been below expectations in many northern cropping regions but are still significantly higher than average, with production expected to be the second highest on record.

The area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is estimated to have decreased by 3% to 6.9 million hectares in 2025–26, still the third highest on record and 21% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Despite mostly favourable seasonal conditions at the time of planting, conditions were not as favourable as at the start of the 2024–25 season, particularly in southern cropping regions.

The Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall outlook for December (issued on 20 November 2025) indicates that rainfall across cropping regions in New South Wales is unlikely to exceed the median. Below average rainfall over December is likely to lead to largely uninterrupted harvest activity and reduces the risk of declining grain quality during harvest.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Summer crop production in New South Wales is forecast to fall by 22% to 2 million tonnes in 2025–‍26, largely reflecting a fall in the area planted to cotton and rice. Total area planted to summer crops in 2025–‍26 is expected to fall by 17% to 555 thousand hectares.

Sorghum production is forecast to increase by 5% to 890 thousand tonnes in 2025–26, 62% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Area planted to sorghum is forecast to increase by 11% to 200 thousand hectares, 36% above the 10-year average to 2024–25, reflecting good soil moisture availability and better returns compared to cotton. 

Cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 28% to 565 thousand tonnes in 2025–26 but remain just above the 10-year average to 2024–25. The area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 27% to 245 thousand hectares in 2025–26, driven by reduced water availability, below average soil moisture profiles, and falling returns compared to sorghum. Yields are expected to fall slightly but remain above the 10-year average to 2024–25.

Rice production is forecast to fall by 66% to 175 thousand tonnes in 2025–26, driven by a 64% reduction in the area planted, the smallest area planted since 2019–20. Reduced general security water allocations and elevated water prices have led to lower rice plantings. 

Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to increase by 17% to 9.1 million tonnes in 2025–‍26. This is up 3% from the  September 2025 Australian Crop Report and is now 11% above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25. Increased production follows timely rainfall in October that is expected to benefit yields and improve later-sown crops across most growing regions in Victoria.

Growing conditions for winter crops in 2025–26 have been largely mixed throughout the season. Initial early winter moisture was offset by dry conditions in August and September across most of the state. Despite early spring dryness – which led to some wheat and barley crops being cut for hay across northern cropping regions – critical and timely rainfall in October across the Wimmera and Western Districts has buoyed yields and supported grain fill in later-sown cereal crops. This has supported above-average yields and production for barley and average yields and production for canola and wheat.

Victorian wheat production is forecast to increase by 16% to 4 million tonnes in 2025–26, with the average state yield forecast to be 3% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Larger production upturns are expected for barley, with barley production increasing 28% to 2.6 million tonnes and yields 14% above the 10-year average. Similarly, lentil production is forecast to increase by 32% to a new state record of 860 thousand tonnes in 2025–26, with yields 17% above the 10-year average to 2024–25, driven by an estimated record area planted of 530 thousand hectares. Meanwhile, canola production is expected to decrease 4% to 1.2 million tonnes, reflecting a lower planted area.

The winter crop harvest is now underway in all cropping regions of Victoria. Wet and cooler conditions in November have slowed harvest progress in north and northeastern Victoria but has yet to lead to reports of falls in grain quality in unharvested crops. According to the Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall outlook for December (issued on 20 November 2025) there is a decreased likelihood of above median rainfall for cropping regions in Victoria which is likely to lead to largely uninterrupted harvest activity and reduces the risk of declining grain quality during harvest.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in South Australia is forecast to rise by 63% to 8.7 million tonnes in 2025–‍26. This represents a 10% upward revision from the September 2025 Australian Crop Report and is now 12% above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25. Production is forecast to rise in 2025–‍26 because of average to above average rainfall across most cropping regions in South Australia throughout October.

Growing conditions for winter crops in 2025–26 have been mixed. Below-average rainfall early in the season had impacted crop yields across most cropping regions in South Australia. However, timely October rainfall helped offset dry conditions during September, particularly across the York and Eyre Peninsula, as well as the northern cropping regions. A delayed start to the season meant that crop development is a couple of weeks behind average, with the late rainfall benefitting barley yields more than wheat, as the rain coincided with its key development phase. The main exception is the Northern Mallee which experienced extremely low rainfall levels throughout this year, which is expected to slightly weigh on state yields. Dry conditions in August and September also led some growers in the mid-north districts to cut crops for hay.

South Australian wheat production is forecast to rise by 71% to 4.7 million tonnes in 2025–26, with the average state yield forecast to be 10% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Similarly, barley and canola yields are estimated to be 6% and 12% above the 10-year averages, respectively. Lentil production is also forecast to increase by 69% to a new state record of 937 thousand tonnes, with yields 2% higher than the 10-year average, and an estimated record area planted of 515 thousand hectares.

The winter crop harvest is delayed across South Australia due to the late start to the season. The Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall outlook for December (issued on 20 November 2025) indicates that rainfall across cropping regions in South Australia is likely to be below average. Below average rainfall over December is likely to lead to largely uninterrupted harvest activity and reduces the risk of declining grain quality during harvest.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES

Winter crop production in Western Australia is forecast to rise by 14% to 26.2 million tonnes in 2025–‍26, just below the previous record set in 2022–‍23. This represents a 10% upward revision from the September 2025 Australian Crop Report and is now 45% above the 10-‍year average to 2024–‍25 of 18.0 million tonnes.

Following an unfavourably dry and hot start to the winter cropping season, conditions in Western Australia improved significantly throughout the season, with timely rainfall through July to September, particularly across northern and southern cropping regions. Yields were also supported by mild temperatures across the key growing regions, although a few areas experienced frost in central and southern regions. Despite below average spring rainfall across southern growing regions in Western Australia, most regions received sufficient rainfall during the critical grain fill windows to support above average yields and production.

Wheat production in Western Australia is forecast to increase by 6% to 13.4 million tonnes in 2025–26, mainly driven by higher yields, which are expected to be 39% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Higher yields are mainly the result of improved conditions particularly in central and northern cropping regions, where conditions have been exceptional. Barley production is forecast to increase by 20% to a record 7.2 million tonnes, with the average state yield forecast to be 42% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. Canola production is forecast to increase 35% to 3.9 million tonnes in 2025–26, driven by a 19% increase in the area planted and higher yields.

Despite a slow start to the 2025–26 winter crop harvest in Western Australia due to rainfall in northern cropping regions, the harvest has been progressing quickly and benefiting from the dry finish to the season and below average rainfall in early November. Yields are reportedly better than expected. According to the rainfall outlook for December, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 20 November 2025, it is expected that rainfall is likely to be below average which should allow for the harvesting of winter crops to progress with minimal interruption.

Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area includes planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed. Percent changes are relative to 2024-25.
Source: ABARES