Agricultural Commodities Report June 2025

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This report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia’s agricultural production and exports to 2025–26.

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Gross value of agricultural production to fall by 3% to $90.7 billion in 2025–26.
Livestock and livestock product values to fall as lower turn-off outweighs robust global demand.
Crop production values to fall as lower production outweighs slight price rises.
Agricultural export values to fall by 3% in 2025–26 to $71.7 billion given falling crop export values.
Average farm business profit to fall in 2025–26 to $141,000 driven by lower farm production.

Uncertainty around inflation and trade policy weigh on global economic outlook for 2025–26.
Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, demand for Australian agricultural exports to remain resilient.
The Australian dollar is expected to remain low in 2025–26, supporting export competitiveness.
Input prices expected to remain elevated in 2025–26.
Australian consumer spending to increase in 2025–26 with rising real disposable incomes.

Global crop production in 2024–25 is projected to remain above 2023–24 levels.
Close to average rainfall forecasts for June to August 2025 is expected to boost production for many of the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions in 2025–26.
Average to above average summer and autumn rainfall across northern New South Wales, Queensland and southern Western Australia has provided a strong start to the 2025–26 winter cropping season for those areas.
In contrast, low soil moisture and limited autumn rainfall in cropping regions in South Australia, western Victoria, southern New South Wales and northern Western Australia has seen a large proportion of the 2025–26 winter crop sown dry and will be heavily dependent on forecast winter rainfall.

Value of Australian crop production to decrease by 4% to $50.7 billion in 2025–26 as production falls.
Australian crop production to decline in 2025–26 under an expectation of drier conditions.
Value and volume of crop exports to decline but remain above the 10-year average.
World crop prices to rise in 2025–26, reflecting tight global supply amidst growing demand.

Value of livestock and livestock product production to fall by 1% to $40 billion in 2025‍–‍26.
Domestic prices to rise for beef cattle, sheep, and milk in 2025‍–‍26.
Domestic production for all major meat and livestock products to fall except for pig meat, poultry, and eggs.
Value of livestock and livestock product exports to ease from record highs in 2024–25.
Strong world demand for meat to support higher export prices.

National average broadacre farm business profit to decrease by $28,000 in 2025–26, from $169,000 to $141,000.
Cropping farm profits supported by rising prices, while production to ease but remain high in 2025–26.
Average livestock profits to remain steady, supported by increased values of ‘stocks on hand’.
Favourable conditions to support strong agricultural outcomes for Queensland, northern New South Wales and much of Western Australia.
Southern New South Wales, South Australia and western parts of Victoria face improving conditions but significant downside risk.