Agricultural Commodities Report September 2025

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This report contains ABARES forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia’s agricultural production and exports to 2025–26.

Please note revisions have been made to the Beef and Cattle chapter following the identification of ABS trade data incorrectly identifying returning Australian beef from the US as of ‘US Origin’.

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Agricultural Overview infographic
  • Gross value of agricultural production to rise by 1% to $94.7 billion.
  • Livestock and livestock product values to rise as robust global demand and growing re-stocker activity drives higher prices.
  • Value of crop production to fall slightly as lower prices outweigh growth in total volume.
  • Agricultural export value to fall by 3% to $74.6 billion given falling overall livestock and livestock product export volume.
  • Average farm business profit to rise to $163,000 driven by higher livestock prices and improved seasonal conditions.

Download this report: Overview (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Economic Overview infographic
  • Uncertainty around inflation and global trade policy to weigh on the global economic outlook for 2025–26.
  • Despite US tariffs and deals, demand for Australian agricultural exports remain resilient.
  • The Australian dollar is expected to remain low in 2025–26, supporting export competitiveness.
  • Input prices expected to remain elevated in 2025–26.
  • Domestic demand expected to rise marginally in 2025–26.

Download this report: Economic overview (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Seasonal conditions infographic
  • Average to above average winter rainfall has boosted soil moisture levels across most growing regions, providing an improved outlook for 2025–26 winter crop yield potentials.
  • In contrast, winter-to-date rainfall totals in southern New South Wales, have only been sufficient to support a delayed establishment and below average yield expectations for 2025–26 winter crops, with minimal improvements in stored soil moisture levels.
  • Favourable global production outcomes are anticipated from average to wetter than normal conditions observed across most northern hemisphere grain and oilseed producing regions.

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Wheat infographic
  • Gross value of wheat production to fall by 4% to $11 billion in 2025–26, largely driven by lower prices.
  • Value and volume of wheat exports to remain above average in 2025–26, with higher exportable supply.
  • Australian wheat production to remain above the historical average reflecting improved seasonal conditions.
  • World wheat production forecast to reach a new record in 2025–26, placing downward pressure on prices.

Download this report: Wheat (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Barley infographic
  • Gross value of barley production to increase 7% to $4.4 billion in 2025–26 due to increased production.
  • Gross value of sorghum production to decrease 11% to $862 million reflecting lower prices.
  • Australian coarse grain production to remain above the long–term average supported by favourable seasonal conditions.
  • Despite strong demand, record global coarse grain production is weighing on prices.
  • Coarse grain export volume and value to increase in 2025–26, remaining well above long–term averages. 

Download this report: Coarse grains (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Canola infographic
  • Gross value of Australian canola production to rise marginally to $5.2 billion in 2025–26.
  • Value and volume of Australian canola exports to rise in 2025–26, supported by global demand.
  • US biofuel demand supporting global canola prices.
  • Australian canola prices forecast to rise marginally in 2025–26, averaging $760 per tonne.

Download this report: Oilseeds (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Wine infographic
  • Value of Australian wine grape production to fall by 9% to $861 million in 2025–26.
  • Value of Australian wine exports to fall by 10% to $2.4 billion in 2025–26.
  • Average wine grape prices expected to fall slightly in 2025-26 and remain below long-term average levels.
  • Wine grape production for crush to fall by 8% to 1.44 million tonnes in 2025–26.

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Horticulture infographic
  • Value of horticulture production to reach a record high of $19.2 billion in 2025–26.
  • Value of horticulture exports to increase by 8% to $4.7 billion in 2025–26.
  • Horticulture export prices to rise in 2025–26, reflecting robust global demand.
  • World supply of fruits and nuts to increase as growing conditions improve in major producing regions.

Download this report: Horticulture (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Beef and cattle infographic
  • The gross value of cattle slaughtering and live exports to rise by 1% to a record $18.9 billion in 2025–26.
  • The ABARES Saleyard Indicator Price to rise 11% to average 675 cents per kg (carcase weight) in 2025–26.
  • Beef production to fall by 9% in 2025–26 reflecting lower slaughter outweighing higher carcase weights.
  • The value of beef and live cattle exports to decline by 4% to $16.4 billion in 2025–26.
  • Global demand for Australian beef to increase in 2025–26 with relatively strong export market access.

Download this report: Beef and cattle (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Dairy infographic
  • Gross value of production to rise by 7% in 2025–26 driven by a higher farmgate milk price.
  • Value and volume of exports to fall driven by lower domestic milk production.
  • Volume of milk production to fall by 1% due to declines in the milking herd.
  • Dairy product export prices to fall given increasing global production and subdued global demand growth.

Download this report: Dairy (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Sheep meat infographic
  • Gross value of sheep meat and live sheep production to rise by 8% to $6.2 billion in 2025–26.
  • Lamb and sheep saleyard prices to rise on the back of reduced supply and increased restocker demand.
  • Value of sheep meat and live sheep exports to fall by 2% to $5.6 billion.
  • Australian production levels to fall as slaughter numbers reduce in 2025–26.
  • Global market demand for sheep meat strong amid reduced world supply.

Download this report: Sheep meat (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Wool infographic
Cotton infographic
  • Value of wool and cotton production to fall by 7% and 18% in 2025–26.
  • Value of wool and cotton exports to fall by 7% and 1% in 2025–26.
  • Eastern Market Indicator of wool price to fall by 1% to 1,151 cents per kilogram in 2025–26.
  • Cotlook A Index of cotton prices to fall by 2% to 78 US cents per pound in 2025–26.

Download this report: Natural fibres (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Pigs, poultry and eggs infographic
  • Value of pig slaughtering to increase by 5% in 2025‍–‍26 to $2.1 billion.
  • Value of poultry slaughtering to increase by 2% in 2025‍–‍26 to $4.2 billion.
  • Value of egg production to increase by 1% in 2025‍–‍26 to $1.4 billion.
  • Pig and poultry meat consumption to increase by 1% to 82kg per person in 2025‍–‍26.

Download this report: Pigs, poultry, eggs (PDF - 4.0 MB)

Farm Performance infographic
  • National average broadacre farm profit to increase by $11,000 in real terms in 2025–26, from $152,000 to $163,000.
  • Cropping farm profits to remain strong, despite easing crop prices and higher costs.
  • Livestock farm profits to rise, supported by higher prices and increased capital value for ‘stocks on hand’.
  • Favourable conditions to support strong agricultural outcomes for Queensland, New South Wales and the Northern Territory.
  • After exceptionally dry conditions in 2024-25, South Australia and some parts of Western Australia and Victoria show improvements in seasonal conditions and farm profit, but downside risk remains.

Download this report: Farm performance (PDF - 4.0 MB)