Agricultural Commodities Report September 2025

• Gross value of agricultural production to rise by 1% to $94.7 billion.
• Livestock and livestock product values to rise as robust global demand and growing re-stocker activity drives higher prices.
• Value of crop production to fall slightly as lower prices outweigh growth in total volume.
• Agricultural export value to fall by 3% to $74.6 billion given falling overall livestock and livestock product export volume.
• Average farm business profit to rise to $163,000 driven by higher livestock prices and improved seasonal conditions.

Download this report: Overview (PDF - 4.0 MB)

• Uncertainty around inflation and global trade policy to weigh on the global economic outlook for 2025–26.
• Despite US tariffs and deals, demand for Australian agricultural exports remain resilient.
• The Australian dollar is expected to remain low in 2025–26, supporting export competitiveness.
• Input prices expected to remain elevated in 2025–26.
• Domestic demand expected to rise marginally in 2025–26.

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• Average to above average winter rainfall has boosted soil moisture levels across most growing regions, providing an improved outlook for 2025–26 winter crop yield potentials.
• In contrast, winter-to-date rainfall totals in southern New South Wales, have only been sufficient to support a delayed establishment and below average yield expectations for 2025–26 winter crops, with minimal improvements in stored soil moisture levels.
• Favourable global production outcomes are anticipated from average to wetter than normal conditions observed across most northern hemisphere grain and oilseed producing regions.

Download this report: Seasonal conditions (PDF - 4.0 MB)

• Gross value of wheat production to fall by 4% to $11 billion in 2025–26, largely driven by lower prices.
• Value and volume of wheat exports to remain above average in 2025–26, with higher exportable supply.
• Australian wheat production to remain above the historical average reflecting improved seasonal conditions.
• World wheat production forecast to reach a new record in 2025–26, placing downward pressure on prices.

Download this report: Wheat (PDF - 4.0 MB)

• Gross value of barley production to increase 7% to $4.4 billion in 2025–26 due to increased production.
• Gross value of sorghum production to decrease 11% to $862 million reflecting lower prices.
• Australian coarse grain production to remain above the long–term average supported by favourable seasonal conditions.
• Despite strong demand, record global coarse grain production is weighing on prices.
• Coarse grain export volume and value to increase in 2025–26, remaining well above long–term averages. 

Download this report: Coarse grains (PDF - 4.0 MB)

• Gross value of Australian canola production to rise marginally to $5.2 billion in 2025–26.
• Value and volume of Australian canola exports to rise in 2025–26, supported by global demand.
• US biofuel demand supporting global canola prices.
• Australian canola prices forecast to rise marginally in 2025–26, averaging $760 per tonne.

Download this report: Oilseeds (PDF - 4.0 MB)

• Value of Australian wine grape production to fall by 9% to $861 million in 2025–26.
• Value of Australian wine exports to fall by 10% to $2.4 billion in 2025–26.
• Average wine grape prices expected to fall slightly in 2025-26 and remain below long-term average levels.
• Wine grape production for crush to fall by 8% to 1.44 million tonnes in 2025–26.

Download this report: Wine (PDF - 4.0 MB)

• Value of horticulture production to reach a record high of $19.2 billion in 2025–26.
• Value of horticulture exports to increase by 8% to $4.7 billion in 2025–26.
• Horticulture export prices to rise in 2025–26, reflecting robust global demand.
• World supply of fruits and nuts to increase as growing conditions improve in major producing regions.

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• The gross value of cattle slaughtering and live exports to rise by 1% to a record $18.9 billion in 2025–26.
• The ABARES Saleyard Indicator Price to rise 11% to average 675 cents per kg (carcase weight) in 2025–26.
• Beef production to fall by 9% in 2025–26 reflecting lower slaughter outweighing higher carcase weights.
• The value of beef and live cattle exports to decline by 4% to $16.4 billion in 2025–26.
• Global demand for Australian beef to increase in 2025–26 with relatively strong export market access.

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• Gross value of production to rise by 7% in 2025–26 driven by a higher farmgate milk price.
• Value and volume of exports to fall driven by lower domestic milk production.
• Volume of milk production to fall by 1% due to declines in the milking herd.
• Dairy product export prices to fall given increasing global production and subdued global demand growth.

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• Gross value of sheep meat and live sheep production to rise by 8% to $6.2 billion in 2025–26.
• Lamb and sheep saleyard prices to rise on the back of reduced supply and increased restocker demand.
• Value of sheep meat and live sheep exports to fall by 2% to $5.6 billion.
• Australian production levels to fall as slaughter numbers reduce in 2025–26.
• Global market demand for sheep meat strong amid reduced world supply.

Download this report: Sheep meat (PDF - 4.0 MB)

• Value of wool and cotton production to fall by 7% and 18% in 2025–26.
• Value of wool and cotton exports to fall by 7% and 1% in 2025–26.
• Eastern Market Indicator of wool price to fall by 1% to 1,151 cents per kilogram in 2025–26.
• Cotlook A Index of cotton prices to fall by 2% to 78 US cents per pound in 2025–26.

Download this report: Natural fibres (PDF - 4.0 MB)

• Value of pig slaughtering to increase by 5% in 2025‍–‍26 to $2.1 billion.
• Value of poultry slaughtering to increase by 2% in 2025‍–‍26 to $4.2 billion.
• Value of egg production to increase by 1% in 2025‍–‍26 to $1.4 billion.
• Pig and poultry meat consumption to increase by 1% to 82kg per person in 2025‍–‍26.

Download this report: Pigs, poultry, eggs (PDF - 4.0 MB)

• National average broadacre farm profit to increase by $11,000 in real terms in 2025–26, from $152,000 to $163,000.
• Cropping farm profits to remain strong, despite easing crop prices and higher costs.
• Livestock farm profits to rise, supported by higher prices and increased capital value for ‘stocks on hand’.
• Favourable conditions to support strong agricultural outcomes for Queensland, New South Wales and the Northern Territory.
• After exceptionally dry conditions in 2024-25, South Australia and some parts of Western Australia and Victoria show improvements in seasonal conditions and farm profit, but downside risk remains.

Download this report: Farm performance (PDF - 4.0 MB)