Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 22 May 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 22 May 2025 low pressure systems and troughs brought rainfall to parts of eastern and southern Australia, with rainfall totals of between 5-100 millimetres recorded across much of northern and eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland.
  • A lack of rainfall elsewhere over the recent week will continue to delay the germination of dry sown winter crops in areas of south-eastern and Western Australia where upper layer soil moisture is low.
• Falls of 200-400 millimetres were recorded across the Mid-Coast and Northern Rivers regions of New South Wales. These heavy falls have led to widespread flooding.
  • Until access to properties and damage assessments can be undertaken the full impact of flooding on agricultural production remains largely unknown. However, this flooding is expected to cause significant impacts on some individuals and businesses, including heavy losses to livestock and farm infrastructure in some instances.
• Over the coming eight days, rainfall is expected across much of north-western and south-eastern Australia.
  • In southern New South Wales, between 10-100 millimetres of rainfall is expected over the period, while lower rainfall totals are expected across parts of South Australia (10- 25 millimetres) and Victoria (5-50 millimetres). Little to no rainfall is expected across Queensland, northern New South Wales, much of South Australia, northwestern Victoria and much of Western Australia.
  • The lack of autumn rainfall continues to present a risk to the timely germination and establishment of winter crops – particularly in those areas of western Victoria and South Australia where there is low stored soil moisture.
• The national rainfall outlook for June to August 2025 indicates an increased probability of above median rainfall across much of inland Australia. Some northern and southern regions are less likely to see above median rainfall.
  • If realised, the expectation of close to average June to August 2025 rainfall across most winter cropping regions is likely be sufficient to support the establishment and growth of winter crops.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 188 gigalitres (GL) between 15 May 2025 and 22 May 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 12,092 GL, equivalent to 54% of total storage capacity. This is 28% or 4,634 GL less than at the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $316 on 15 May to $314 on 22 May. Trade through the Goulburn IVT to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade out of the Murrumbidgee is open.