Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 2 October 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 2 October 2025, cold fronts brought rainfall to parts of southern Australia.
  • Rainfall was low across most winter cropping regions in the week ending 2 October 2025.
  • Most cropping regions in Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland recorded little to no rainfall over the period. South Australia and parts of southern Western Australia and Victoria recorded 1- 10 millimetres.
  • These low rainfall totals have resulted in a drawdown of soil moisture to support the growth and development of crops and pasture. In regions that have low soil moisture reserves, these low rainfall totals are likely to contributed to declining yield outcomes for winter crops as they approach the end of the crop development period.
• Over the coming eight days to 8 October 2025, some rainfall is expected across most southern cropping regions.
  • Falls of between 5-15 millimetres are forecast in cropping regions across Victoria, South Australia and southern New South Wales, while Western Australia is forecast to receive 5- 25 millimetres. If realised, these falls are likely to support crop and pasture growth and development.
  • Meanwhile most cropping regions of Queensland and the remainder of New South Wales are forecast to receive little rainfall. Crops and pastures in these regions will likely draw on stored soil moisture to support growth.
• In southern New South Wales, average to above average September rainfall is likely to have been sufficient to arrest declines in soil moisture levels and winter crop yields, and provided a boost to pasture growth. Despite below average rainfall across some Queensland, South Australian and Victorian cropping regions, these falls coupled with a drawdown of stored soil moisture should have been sufficient to support the growth and development of crops and pastures. Continued timely rainfall is required to support current yield potential of crops in regions that have seen recent dry conditions.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 58 gigalitres (GL) between 25 September 2025 and 2 October 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 15,586 GL, equivalent to 70% of total storage capacity. This is -12% or -2,192 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $279/ML on 25 September 2025 to $300/ML on 2 October 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.