Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 9 October 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 8 October 2025, cold fronts and a northwest cloudband brought rainfall to parts of southern Australia.
  • Rainfall was low across most eastern cropping regions. Cropping regions in South Australia and parts of southern Western Australia and Victoria recorded 1- 10 millimetres. North-western cropping regions in Western Australia observed 1-25 millimetres of rainfall over the period.
  • These low rainfall totals in southern and eastern regions have resulted in a drawdown of soil moisture to support the growth and development of crops and pasture. In regions that have low soil moisture reserves, these low rainfall totals are likely to contribute to declining yield outcomes for winter crops as they approach the end of the crop development period.
• Over the coming eight days to 16 October 2025, some rainfall is expected across most eastern cropping regions. Victoria, South Australia, southern New South Wales and Western Australia are forecast to receive little to no rainfall over the period.
  • Low expected rainfall totals across Western Australia are unlikely to adversely impact crop production outcomes. However, ongoing dry conditions across parts of South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales presents an increased downside production risk for winter crops and pastures which are in their critical final yield determining growth stages.
• The national rainfall outlook for November 2025 to January 2026 indicates an increased probability of above median rainfall across much of Australia.
  • If realised, above median rainfall would support late spring and summer pasture growth across eastern and northern Australia. Additionally, these expected above average falls are likely to be sufficient to support above yield expectation for summer crops.
• Improving pasture growth for the three months to September 2025 across large areas of Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, and north-western and southern New South Wales will likely see graziers to increase stocking rates and production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 116 gigalitres (GL) between 02 October 2025 and 09 October 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 15,471 GL, equivalent to 70% of total storage capacity. This is -11% or -1,989 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $300/ML on 02 October 2025 to $319/ML on 09 October 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.