Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 20 November 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 19 November 2025, rainfall was recorded across parts of northern, western and eastern Australia, while central areas remained comparably dry.
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall outcomes were low in southern areas with heavy fall recorded in the northeast.
  • For northern cropping regions these falls have likely boosted soil moisture levels and will support the growth of summer crops already in the ground and encourage further planting, but have likely disrupted harvest of winter crops in these areas.
  • Ongoing dry conditions across northern Victoria, South Australia and southern New South Wales continue to present an increased downside production risk for pastures and winter crops.
• Over the coming eight days to 27 November 2025, limited rainfall is expected across most southeastern cropping regions, while cropping regions in Queensland, southern Western Australia, and northern New South Wales are likely to see higher rainfall totals.
  • At this late stage of the winter growing season, the light falls forecast for many southern growing regions are unlikely to boost production, but may alleviate some of the increased downside production risk that has emerged in recent weeks due to dry conditions.
  • If realised the heavier falls forecast in north-eastern cropping regions are expected to cause some delays to the ongoing harvest of winter crops and planting of summer crops in affected regions. However, across summer cropping regions these falls will likely provide a substantial boost to soil moisture levels and support the germination and growth of crops already in the ground.
• Global production conditions were generally favourable for rice and soybeans, but more variable for maize and wheat. According to the most recent crop estimate numbers released by the USDA in November 2025, global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2025–26 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the September 2025 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to increase beyond the numbers in the September forecast.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 122 gigalitres (GL) between 13 November 2025 and 19 November 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 14,567 GL, equivalent to 65% of total storage capacity. This is 11% or 1,754 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $298/ML on 13 November 2025 to $304/ML on 20 November 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.