Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 17 July 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 16 July 2025, frontal systems brought rainfall totals of up to 50 millimetres to parts of southern Australia. High-pressure systems kept much of the remainder of Australia largely dry.
  • Rainfall was variable across cropping regions, with much of Western Australian and New South Wales regions, as well as isolated parts of Queensland seeing 1-15 millimetres. Much of South Australia and Victoria received 5-50 millimetres, while Queensland remained largely dry.
  • The ongoing lack of rainfall across the Mallee regions of South Australia and Victoria continues to present a downside production risk for winter crops.
• Over the coming eight days, rainfall is expected across much of southern and eastern Australia, while northern and central Australia is likely to remain largely dry.
  • Cropping regions in Victoria, South Australia, and New South Wales are expected to record between 5-50 millimetres of rainfall, with falls of between 15-50 millimetres expected across most cropping regions of Western Australia. If realised, this should provide timely moisture to support the establishment and growth of winter crops across most southern cropping regions.
• Rainfall in June 2025 was variable across the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions, leading to differing crop production outcomes.
  • Global production conditions were generally favourable for major crops including wheat, maize, rice and soybeans.
• Global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2024–25 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the June 2025 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to increase beyond the numbers in the June forecast, due to improvements in global corn and soybean production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 106 gigalitres (GL) between 10 July 2025 and 17 July 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 13,389 GL, equivalent to 60% of total storage capacity. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $318/ML on 10 July 2025 to $305/ML on 17 July 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.