Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 21 August 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 20 August 2025, low-pressure systems and cold fronts brought rainfall to parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall was highly variable. Western Australia saw 5 - 50 millimetres, while southern and central Queensland, western and central South Australia and parts of central and northern New South Wales saw 5-25 millimetres. Remaining areas received little to no rainfall.
  • The lack of rainfall across much of southern New South Wales, Victoria and eastern South Australia is likely to see a draw down in soil moisture levels with potential impacts on plant growth rates and yield potentials. Elsewhere, these falls will continue to support the growth and development of winter crops.
• Over the coming eight days to 28 August 2025, rainfall is expected to be mixed across eastern cropping regions, with heavier falls expected in the west.
  • Falls of between 25-50 millimetres are forecast across Western Australia.
  • Meanwhile, falls of between 5-25 millimetres are expected in in South Australia, Victoria, and across parts of southern and eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland.
  • If realised these falls are likely to be sufficient to support the growth and development in most areas and see some ongoing improvement to a soil moisture reserves in Western Australia and western and central regions of South Australia.
• Rainfall in July 2025 was variable across the world’s major grain- and oilseed-producing regions but generally leading to positive crop production outcomes across both the northern and southern hemispheres.
  • Global production conditions were generally favourable for maize, rice and soybeans, but more varied for wheat. Global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2025–26 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the June 2025 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to increase beyond the numbers in the June forecast, particularly due to improvements in global corn and soybean production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 73 gigalitres (GL) between 14 August 2025 and 21 August 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 14,720 GL, equivalent to 66% of total storage capacity. This is 20% or 3,595GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $287/ML on 14 August 2025 to $272/ML on 21 August 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.