Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 25 September 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 24 September 2025, cold fronts brought rainfall to parts of northern and eastern Australia.
  • Rainfall was low across most winter cropping regions in the week ending 24 September 2025.
  • Most regions in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales recorded rainfall totals of 0-5 millimetres over the period. In regions that have experienced consecutive weeks of low rainfall, this is likely to have contributed to adverse yield outcomes for crops.
  • Higher rainfall totals of between 5-25 millimetres were recorded in Queensland, northern New South Wales, with isolated areas seeing up to 50 millimetres.
• Over the coming eight days to 2 October 2025, limited rainfall is expected across most cropping regions.
  • Falls of between 5-15 millimetres are forecast across cropping regions in Victoria and southern New South Wales, while southeastern South Australia is likely to see 5-10 millimetres. If realised, these falls are likely to support crop and pasture growth and development.
  • Meanwhile most cropping regions of Western Australia, western South Australia, northern New South Wales, and Queensland are forecast to receive little rainfall. Crops and pastures in these regions will likely draw on stored soil moisture to support growth.
• The national rainfall outlook for October to December 2025 indicates an increased probability of above median rainfall across much of eastern Australia. While parts of western Tasmania are more likely to see below median rainfall, remaining areas have an equal probability of above or below average rainfall
  • If realised, the expectation of average to above average October to December 2025 rainfall across much of Australia would support the finishing of winter crops, as well as supporting spring and early summer pasture growth and the timely planting and establishment of dryland summer crops in eastern Australia.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 63 gigalitres (GL) between 18 September 2025 and 25 September 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 15,645 GL, equivalent to 70% of total storage capacity. This is -13% or -2,283 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $294/ML on 18 September 2025 to $279/ML on 25 September 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.