Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 18 December 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 17 December 2025, rainfall was recorded across northern, eastern, and western regions of Australia, while central and some southern areas remained comparably dry.
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall was high in the east, and comparatively dry in the south.
    • Across those areas of Queensland and New South Wales which recorded rainfall this week, these falls have likely provided some benefit to soil moisture levels and supported the growth of summer crops already in the ground and could encourage further planting.
• Over the coming eight days to 25 December 2025, limited rainfall is expected across most southern cropping regions, with higher rainfall totals expected in the east.
  • The expected heavier falls across northern New South Wales and Queensland are likely to support soil moisture storage in summer cropping regions.
  • The relatively dry expected conditions across most southern cropping regions are likely to support harvest activities.
• Global production conditions in November were generally favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans, but more varied for wheat. According to the most recent crop estimate numbers released by the USDA, global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2025–26 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the December 2025 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to increase beyond the numbers in the December forecast.
• According to the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators December 2025 estimates, broadacre farm profits for 2025–26 at a national level are forecast to be Very Much Above Average (88th percentile) compared to the past 33 years. These projections are consistent with the broader farm performance forecasts for 2025–26 outlined in the December 2025 Agricultural Commodities report.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 174 gigalitres (GL) between 11 December 2025 and 18 December 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 13,788 GL, equivalent to 62% of total storage capacity. This is 16% or 2,650 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $364/ML on 11 December 2025 to $379/ML on 11 December 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.