Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 19 March 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 18 March 2026, low-pressure systems and tropical lows brought heavy rainfall to of the far north and eastern Australia.
  • Severe weather and flood warnings remain in place throughout parts of the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales. Flash flooding is set to see major disruptions to supply chains persisting, with extensive road closures across Queensland and western New South Wales.
  • Across cropping regions falls of between 5-50 millimetres were recorded across South Australia, with eastern Western Australia and Victoria observing 5-25 millimetres. These falls are expected to support autumn pasture growth and boost soil moisture levels in the led up to winter crop planting.
• Over the 8-days to 26 March 2026, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Narelle is expected to bring heavy rainfall and destructive winds the far north of Australia, with rainfall also forecast for large areas of south-eastern Australia.
  • Across northern Australia falls of between 25-200 millimetres are forecast, with some areas likely to see up to 400 millimetres. These heavy falls are likely to exacerbate exiting flooding, extend supply chain disruptions and slow recovery efforts.
  • Across cropping regions rainfall of between 5-25 millimetres are expected to be restricted to parts of the south-east and eastern Western Australia. These falls are likely to contribute to a build-up of soil moisture ahead of the planting of 2026–27 winter crops and benefit the growth of pastures.
• Global production conditions in February were generally favourable for maize, rice and soybeans, but more variable for wheat. According to the most recent crop estimate numbers released by the USDA, global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2025–26 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the March 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to increase beyond the numbers in the March forecast.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 39 gigalitres (GL) between 12 March 2026 and 19 March 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 10,550 GL, equivalent to 47% of total storage capacity. This is 15% or 1,859 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $489/ML on 12 March 2026 to $463/ML on 19 March 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.