Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 24 September 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 23 September 2026, little to no rainfall was recorded across much of Australia. Scattered rainfall was recorded across parts of the east, south and west of Australia.
• Across cropping regions, rainfall was largely confined to Western Australia, with most south-eastern and eastern cropping regions remaining mostly dry.
  • In Western Australia, rainfall of 1–5 millimetres was recorded across most southern and eastern cropping regions, while little to no rainfall was recorded across other cropping regions.
• Over the 8 days to 1 October 2026, rainfall is expected across large parts of southern Australia. Rainfall is also forecast for coastal Queensland and eastern New South Wales, while much of central Australia is expected to remain largely dry.
  • Most cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and eastern New South Wales are forecast to receive 5–25 millimetres, with higher totals of up to 50 millimetres possible in southern Western Australian cropping regions. If realised, these falls are likely to provide useful late-season moisture for winter crops and support pasture growth across southern cropping regions, where soil moisture conditions are adequate.
  • Cropping regions in Queensland and western New South Wales are forecast to receive little to no rainfall.
• The Bureau of Meteorology indicates that El Niño continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific. Despite the strengthen El Niño, the October to December 2026 outlook indicates below average rainfall is likely be restricted to parts of south-eastern Australia and far northern Queensland, while above average rainfall is more likely across much of western and central Australia, including parts of inland and southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.
  • If forecast October to December rainfall totals are realised, they are likely to support at least average pasture growth and maintain winter crop yield potential in areas with average or better soil moisture. In Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, forecast rainfall may assist summer crop planting opportunities but is likely to arrive too late to materially improve below average winter crop production outcomes.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin increased by 20 gigalitres between 17 September 2026 and 24 September 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 15,079 gigalitres, equivalent to 68% of total storage capacity. This is 4% or 581 gigalitres less than the same time last year.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $337 per megalitre on 17 September 2026 to $350 per megalitre on 24 September 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed, trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed, and trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.