Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 1 October 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 30 September 2026, rainfall was concentrated across western and scattered areas of the northern and eastern seaboards, while much of the remainder of Australia remained largely dry.
• Across cropping regions rainfall was again generally restricted to the west. In Western Australia, most areas recorded falls of between 5-25 millimetres, with falls of 25-50 millimetres and isolated totals above 50 millimetres recorded across in parts of the south.
  • These falls are expected to support winter crop development and pasture growth, particularly where higher totals were recorded.
• Over the 8 days to 8 October 2026, rainfall is forecast across large areas of southern, central and eastern Australia, with the highest totals expected in Victoria and parts of south-eastern New South Wales.
  • Cropping regions in Victoria, South Australia and central and southern New South Wales are forecast to receive 10-50 millimetres, with higher rainfall totals in southern areas. If realised, these falls are likely to provide a timely boost to soil moisture levels, support winter crop grain fill and maintain favourable pasture growth.
  • Remaining cropping regions, including Western Australia, northern New South Wales and Queensland, are generally forecast to receive only 1–10 millimetres.
• Rainfall during September 2026 was above average across much of Western Australia and parts of northern Australia, but below average across large areas of eastern and southern Australia as well as the parts of the far southwest.
  • The particularly low rainfall across the southeast has likely led to a drawdown of stored soil moisture levels to maintain forecast above average winter crop yields and above average pasture growth rates. Meanwhile, above average falls across parts of southern Western Australia would have provided a timely boost to soil moisture levels, support winter crop grain fill and maintain favourable pasture growth.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 88 gigalitres (GL) between 24 September 2026 and 1 October 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 14,991 GL, equivalent to 67% of total storage capacity. This is 4% or 589 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $350/ML on 24 September 2026 to $358/ML on 1 October 2026.