Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 3 April 2025

In the week ending 2 April 2025, monsoon lows brought intense rainfall to northern and central regions of the country, while low-pressure systems brought rainfall to the east. High-pressure systems kept much of the remainder of Australia largely dry.

• Elevated rainfall totals continued in much of the northern and central Australia, including Queensland (10-400 millimetres), the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia (5- 200 millimetres), and northern South Australia (5-50 millimetres).
  • While these falls have led to extensive flooding and losses of livestock and farm infrastructure, they are also likely to boost pasture growth, soil moisture and on farm water storage over the months ahead.
• Rainfall totals of between 5-300 millimetres were recorded across New South Wales and eastern Victoria, with parts of southern Western Australia recording falls of between 5-25 millimetres over the period.
• Little to no rainfall was observed in remaining southern and western areas, including southern South Australia, western Victoria, Tasmania, and remaining areas in Western Australia.

Rainfall totals were generally low across western and southern cropping regions, but higher in the east.

• In Queensland, rainfall totals of 50-200 millimetres were recorded, with higher rainfall totals in the south, while northern New South Wales saw between 50-300 millimetres of rainfall. This is expected to see an improvement in stored soil moisture but is likely to lead to some crop losses, quality downgrades and lengthy delays to the harvesting of unharvested summer crops.
• Meanwhile, parts of Western Australia received 0-25 millimetres of rainfall, while southern New South Wales received between 5-25 millimetres of rainfall. South Australia and western Victoria saw little to no rainfall over the period.

Rainfall for the week ending 2 April 2025

Over the 8 days to 10 April 2025, low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall to parts of the north, south and east of the country.

• Falls of between 10-100 millimetres are likely for much of northern tropics, including the north of the Northern Territory and northern Queensland, with northern Western Australia expected to see between 10-50 millimetres.
• Southern regions of Western Australia are expected to receive 15-50 millimetres, while Tasmania is likely to receive 10-100 millimetres.
• Coastal regions of southeast Queensland, northern New South Wales, and southern Victoria are forecast to receive 10-25 millimetres of rainfall.
• High-pressure systems are expected to keep central and remaining southern regions largely dry.

Rainfall totals across cropping regions over the coming week are forecast to be highly variable.

• Rainfall totals of between 10-50 millimetres are expected in Western Australia, while northern Queensland is likely to see 10-100 millimetres over the period.
• In contrast, cropping regions in southern Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia are expected to receive little to no rainfall.
• If realised, these low rainfall totals across Queensland and northern New South Wales are likely to support the drying down of saturated soils and support the resumption of harvesting of summer crop and planting of winter crops in coming weeks.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 3 April to 10 April 2025

Rainfall during March 2025 was high across large areas of the northern, eastern and central Australia, while parts of southern and western Australia saw below average rainfall totals.

• Rainfall was well below average to below average across parts of western and southern Australia, including large areas of Tasmania, southern South Australia, western Victoria, as well as coastal and central parts of Western Australia.
• Above average to extremely high rainfall was recorded across much of Queensland, as well as parts of northern New South Wales and South Australia, eastern Northern Territory, southern and far-northern Western Australia and eastern Victoria.
• The remainder of Australia saw generally average March rainfall.

In cropping regions, March rainfall was variable, with generally below average and average rainfall in the southeast and above average rainfall in the northeast and southwest:

• Much of South Australia, northern Western Australia, and Victoria observed well below average to average rainfall.
• In Queensland, New South Wales and the remainder of Western Australia average to extremely high rainfall was experienced in most regions over the period.

Rainfall percentiles for March 2025

In March 2025, modelled upper layer soil moisture was generally average to above average across much of the country.

• Large areas of Tasmania, southern South Australia, and parts of Western Australia saw very much below average to below average upper layer soil moisture.
• In contrast, much of Queensland and New South Wales, as well as northern South Australia, the Northern Territory and much of Victoria saw average to very much above upper layer soil moisture.

At this time of year, upper layer soil moisture is important for late planted summer crops in northern New South Wales and Queensland and for pasture growth across northern Australia since plant germination and establishment utilise this moisture. It is also an important indicator of the ability to access paddocks for the harvesting of summer crops.

Across cropping regions, modelled upper layer soil moisture in March was generally average across much of the east and west, while some cropping regions in the south saw below average soil moisture.

• In Western Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales upper layer soil moisture was broadly average, with scattered areas of above average and below average soil moisture distributed across cropping regions.
• In Queensland and northern New South Wales, upper layer soil moisture was above average.
• In South Australia, upper layer soil moisture was below average to average.

Average to above average upper layer soil moisture in New South Wales and Queensland is likely to have led to some disruption to the harvesting of summer crops for northern cropping regions.

Modelled upper layer soil moisture for March 2025

Across much of Australia, modelled lower layer soil moisture in March 2025 was average to above average, with areas of below average lower layer soil moisture across the country.

• Large areas of the north of the Northern Territory, southern South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and southern and west Western Australia were modelled as having very much below average soil moisture.
• By contrast, much of western Queensland, eastern and western New South Wales, eastern Victoria, and central Australia were modelled as having above average to very much above average soil moisture over the period.

At this time of year increased levels of lower layer soil moisture will be important to support late planted summer crops and pasture growth during a peak growth period.

Across cropping regions, modelled lower layer soil moisture was generally average in the east with areas of extremely low moisture modelled in the south.

• Much of Queensland, New South Wales and southern Western Australia saw average modelled soil moisture. In contrast, South Australia, Victoria, and parts of northern Western Australia saw below average soil moisture for this time of year, while parts of northern Queensland and southwest Western Australia were modelled as having above average soil moisture.

Average lower layer soil moisture is likely to provide a reserve of plant-available water for summer crops later in the growing season. Lower-layer soil moisture plays a pivotal role in sustaining the growth of winter crops and pasture during their critical development stages. Large areas of South Australia and Victoria continue to show deficient levels of soil moisture which may impact the establishment of forthcoming winter crops particularly given an increased chance below the median rainfall outlook for the next three months.

Modelled lower layer soil moisture for March 2025

Pasture growth for the three months to March 2025 has been mixed across much of country, with northern and parts of eastern Australia experiencing improved pasture growth.

• Average to extremely high pasture growth was modelled across large areas of north-western and eastern Australia, including Western Australia, Queensland, as well as southern New South Wales and eastern Victoria.

This pasture growth is expected to support farmers maintaining stock numbers, provide opportunities to build standing dry matter availability and decrease the reliance on fodder to maintain livestock condition over the summer period.

• By contrast, large areas of central, western, and south-eastern Australia saw relatively low pasture growth for this time of year.

This lower pasture growth will likely see graziers in affected regions actively destocking or increased reliance on supplemental feed to maintain current stocking rates and production.

Relative pasture growth for 3-months ending March 2025 (1 January to 31 March 2025)