Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 19 February 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 11 February 2026, weather systems including Tropical Cyclone In the week ending 18 February 2026, low-pressure systems brought heavy rainfall to much of northern Australia
  • Much of northern Australia, including the northern tropics, central and southeast Queensland and the southern Northern Territory saw falls of 50 millimetres or greater. This has led to the issuing of numerous new flood warning across several river catchments. At this stage there have been no significant reports of agricultural losses, with these falls likely to provide significant longer-term benefits to pasture production.
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall was low in most southern areas, while high in the northeast. Queensland saw falls of between 25-200 millimetres, with isolated areas northern New South Wales recording 5-50 millimetres.
• Over the 8-days to 26 February 2026, rainfall is forecast for much of the north, centre and southeast of Australia.
  • Rainfall totals across cropping regions over the coming week are forecast to be higher in the southeast, with South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales are forecast to see 25- 50 millimetres of rainfall over the period. These falls are likely to contribute to a build-up of soil moisture following a relative dry summer to date and benefit the growth of summer active pastures.
• Global production conditions in January were generally favourable for maize, rice and soybeans, but more variable for wheat. According to the most recent crop estimate numbers released by the USDA, global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2025–26 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the December 2025 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to increase beyond the numbers in the December forecast.
• According to the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators February 2026 estimates, broadacre farm profits for 2025–26 at a national level are forecast to be Very Much Above Average (89th percentile) compared to the past 33 years. These projections are broadly consistent with farm profit forecasts for 2025–26 outlined in the December 2025 Agricultural Commodities report.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 216 gigalitres (GL) between 12 February 2026 and 19 February 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 10,884 GL, equivalent to 49% of total storage capacity. This is 20% or 2,777 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $466/ML on 12 February 2026 to $541/ML on 19 February 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open