Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 16 October 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 15 October 2025, cold fronts and low-pressure troughs brought rainfall to parts of northern and southern Australia.
  • Rainfall was generally low across southern cropping regions, while parts of Queensland saw up to 50 millimetres.
  • Ongoing dry conditions across South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales presents an increased downside production risk for pastures and winter crops which are in their final yield-determining growth stages. As dry conditions continue some growers will be making decisions about whether to cut crops for hay.
  • Falls across Queensland may have resulted in some winter crop harvesting delays but would have provided a timely boost in soil moisture for the planting and establishment of summer crops. Rainfall across central regions of New South Wales is likely to have provided a boost in soil moisture levels, benefiting winter crops and pastures.
• Over the coming eight days to 23 October 2025, some rainfall is expected across most southern cropping regions. However, cropping regions in northern Western Australia and northern Queensland are forecast to receive little to no rainfall over the period.
  • If realised, falls in southern cropping regions would provide some much-needed moisture for crop and pasture growth but may be too late to prevent declines in expected crop yields in some areas.
• Globally, rainfall during September 2025 has improved crop production prospects, albeit with significant variability across major grain and oilseed-producing regions
• Global production conditions were generally favourable for maize, rice and soybeans, but more variable for wheat. According to the most recent crop estimate numbers released by the USDA in September 2025, global production conditions have been slightly more favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2025–26 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the September 2025 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to increase beyond the numbers in the September forecast.