Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 11 December 2025

Key issues

• In the week ending 10 December 2025, rainfall was recorded across northern, eastern, and isolated southern regions of Australia, while central and western areas remained comparably dry.
  • Across cropping regions, little to no rainfall was recorded, with exceptions in the northeast.
    • Most cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia saw falls of between 0-5 millimetres. Scattered areas of north-eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland recorded falls of between 5-15 millimetres.
• Over the coming eight days to 18 December 2025, limited rainfall is expected across most southern cropping regions, with higher rainfall totals expected in the east.
  • The expected heavier falls across northern New South Wales and Queensland are likely to support soil moisture storage in summer cropping regions, but the lighter falls across southern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and Western Australia may result in some harvest delays for winter crops.
  • The relatively dry expected conditions across most southern cropping regions are likely to support harvest activities following a slow start due to cool wet conditions during much of November.
• The national rainfall outlook for January to March 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across areas of north-western and parts of south-eastern Australia, while some northern and eastern areas are more likely to see above median rainfall.
  • If realised, the increased chance of below median rainfall across parts of south-eastern Australia is likely to benefit late harvest activity of winter crops. Close to average forecast rainfall for much of northern and eastern Australia is expected to support summer crop and pasture production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 186 gigalitres (GL) between 4 December 2025 and 11 December 2025. The current volume of water held in storages is 14,072 GL, equivalent to 63% of total storage capacity. This is 15% or 2,420 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $357/ML on 4 December 2025 to $364/ML on 11 December 2025. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.