Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 23 July 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 22 July 2026, much of Australia was largely dry, particularly across northern and central regions.
  • Northern and central cropping regions in Western Australia saw 10-100 millimetres of rainfall, with falls of 1-10 millimetres in southern regions. These moderate falls across most growing regions have boosted soil moisture levels and will continue to support the growth of winter crops.
• Over the 8 days to 30 July 2026, Australia is forecast to remain largely dry, with exceptions in southern regions.
  • Across cropping regions falls of 5-10 millimetres are forecast for parts of southern Western Australia, South Australia, and southern New South Wales, while southern Victoria is expected to see 5-15 millimetres. If realised, these relatively low falls are likely to benefit crop and pasture growth in parts of the southeast where waterlogged soils have been impeding plant growth.
  • Remaining cropping regions are likely to see little to no rainfall over the coming 8-days.
• The national rainfall outlook for August to October 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia.
  • The current rainfall outlook for August to October 2026 suggests below average falls across most cropping regions. However, favourable soil moisture levels across most of Australia’s southern growing regions means that if forecast August through October rainfall totals are realised, these falls are likely be sufficient to support the growth of winter crops. However, well below average expected falls for north-eastern growing regions represents an ongoing downside production risk for the 2026–27 winter cropping season.
• According to the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators July 2026 estimates, broadacre farm profits for 2026–27 at a national level are forecast to be above average (72nd percentile) compared to the past 33 years. These projections are consistent with the broader farm profit forecasts for 2026–27 outlined in the June 2026 Agricultural Commodities report.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 340 gigalitres (GL) between 16 July 2026 and 23 July 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 12,773 GL, equivalent to 57% of total storage capacity. This is 4% or 768 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from$403/ML on 16 July 2026 to $388/ML on 23 July 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.