Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 21 May 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 20 May 2026, low pressure systems brought rainfall eastern and central areas, while western areas remained dry.
  • Cropping regions across much of South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and parts of southern Queensland saw falls of 10- 50 millimetres. These falls have provided a timely boost to soil moisture level across most south-eastern cropping regions.
  • Most cropping regions of Western Australia and northern Queensland saw little to no rainfall. A continuation of mainly dry conditions in these regions is expected to lead to further declines in soil moisture levels.
• Over the 8 days to 28 May 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall to parts of south-eastern, south-western and north-western Australia:
  • Falls of 15-25 millimetres are forecast for Western Australia, while Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland are forecast to see 5-15 millimetres.
  • If realised, these expected falls are likely to provide a small additional boost to soil moisture levels south-eastern cropping areas, and timely boost to soil moisture levels across much of Western Australia following a relative dry May to date.
• Global production conditions in April were generally favourable for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. According to the most recent crop estimate numbers released by the USDA, global production has been revised upward and is higher than the numbers used to formulate ABARES 2025–26 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the March 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production is likely to increase beyond the numbers in the March forecast.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 76 gigalitres (GL) between 14 May 2026 and 21 May 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 10,078 GL, equivalent to 45% of total storage capacity. This is 17% or 2,049 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $390/ML on 14 May 2026 to $368/ML on 21 May 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.