Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 28 May 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 27 May 2026, low-pressure systems brought rainfall to southern, south-eastern, and some central areas.
  • Most cropping regions in South Australia and New South Wales saw falls of 1-50 millimetres, with isolated falls up to 100 millimetres. In Victoria and southern Western Australia falls of up to 25 millimetres were recorded.
  • These falls have provided a timely boost to soil moisture level across many southern cropping regions. Some rainfall across parts of northern New South Wales has provide some reprieve to persistent dry conditions but may not have been sufficient to reverse an expected decline in the area planted to winter crops during 2026–27.
• Over the 8 days to 4 June 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems are expected to bring rainfall to parts of eastern and southern Australia.
  • Across cropping regions, falls of 10-100 millimetres are forecast for much of Western Australia, northern New South Wales and Queensland. In South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales falls of between 10-50 millimetres are expected.
  • If realised, these expected falls are likely to provide an additional boost to soil moisture levels south-eastern cropping areas, and timely boost to soil moisture levels across much of Western Australia following a relative dry May to date. This may also encourage additional planting of crops in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales.
• The national rainfall outlook for June to August 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across large areas of Australia.
  • While the current rainfall outlook for winter 2026 suggest below average falls, favourable soil moisture levels across most of Australia’s southern growing regions means that if forecast June through August rainfall totals are realised, these falls are likely be sufficient to support the establishment and growth of winter crops. However, these below average expected falls for north-eastern growing regions represents an ongoing downside production risk for the 2026–27 winter cropping season.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 104 gigalitres (GL) between 21 May 2026 and 28 May 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 10,183 GL, equivalent to 46% of total storage capacity. This is 18% or 2,200 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $368/ML on 21 May 2026 to $356/ML on 28 May 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.