Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 27 August 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 26 August 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems brought rainfall to large areas of central and southern Australia.
  • Across cropping regions in southern Queensland, much of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, falls of up to 50 millimetres were recorded.
  • These falls are expected to continue to support strong crop and pasture growth across southern New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria, and provide a timely boost to soil moisture levels across northern New South Wales and southern Queensland following an extended period of dry conditions.
• Over the 8 days to 3 September 2026, rainfall is expected in parts of south-eastern and most of south-western Australia.
  • Cropping regions in Western Australia are forecast to receive 5-50 millimetres of rainfall, while parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales are likely to see 5-10 millimetres.
  • In contrast, conditions are expected to be mainly dry across most cropping regions in New South Wales, northern Victoria, South Australia, and Queensland.
• The national rainfall outlook for September to November 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across much of south-eastern Australia as well as parts of the east and far southwest of the country.
  • The current rainfall outlook for September to November 2026 suggests an increased chance of below average falls across most cropping regions in south-eastern Australia, and mixed expected falls in Western Australia. However, favourable soil moisture levels across most of Australia’s southern growing regions means that if forecast spring rainfall totals of between 25-100 millimetres are realised, these falls are likely be sufficient to support the development and maturation of winter crops. However, due to limited stored soil moisture across large areas of northern New South Wales and Queensland, below average expected spring rainfall totals continue to represent an ongoing downside production risk for the 2026–27 winter and summer cropping seasons in these areas.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 340 gigalitres (GL) between 20 August 2026 and 27 August 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 14,208 GL, equivalent to 64% of total storage capacity. This is 4% or 673 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $319/ML on 20 August 2026 to $325/ML on 27 August 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.