Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 15 October 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 14 October 2026, cold fronts and low-pressure systems brought rainfall to large areas of eastern and central Australia.
  • Cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales generally received 5 - 50 millimetres, while parts of central New South Wales and South Australia saw lower falls of 5-25 millimetres.
• Over the eight days from 15 to 22 October 2026, rainfall is forecast across much of the eastern two-thirds of Australia. Much of northwest Western Australia is forecast to receive low rainfall or remain dry.
  • Across eastern cropping regions, considerable falls are expected. Queensland is forecast to receive 25–150 millimetres, with 15-100 millimetres forecast for northern New South Wales.
  • If realised, these falls are likely to provide a timely boost to soil moisture levels ahead of summer cropping.
• Rainfall in September 2026 was broadly positive across the world’s major grain and oilseed producing regions, with some variability in crop production outcomes. Global production conditions were broadly positive for wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice. Unfavourable conditions across parts of the United States, India, Europe and Southeast Asia are a risk to potential global production outcomes for major grains and oilseeds.
  • Global production conditions have been slightly less favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2026–27 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the September 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production are likely to decrease below the estimates in the September forecast, due to declines in global maize and rice production more than offsetting a small, expected increase in global wheat and soybeans production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 33 gigalitres (GL) between 8 October 2026 and 15 October 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 15,028 GL, equivalent to 68% of total storage capacity. This is 1% or 215 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $322/ML on 8 October 2026 to $349/ML on 15 October 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.