Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 10 September 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 9 September 2026, troughs brought rainfall to parts of southern Australia.
  • Cropping regions in Victoria and parts of southern New South Wales recorded falls of up to 50 millimetres. In South Australia and Western Australia falls were highly variable with falls of between 1- 10 millimetres were observed in most regions, with scattered areas in Western Australia seeing 10-25 millimetres of rainfall. These falls are expected to continue to support winter crop and pasture growth.
• Over the 8 days to 17 September 2026, rainfall is expected in south-eastern and central Australia, while much of the remainder of Australia is expected to remain largely dry.
  • Most cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales are forecast to receive 1-10 millimetres, while northern cropping regions are forecast to stay largely dry. If realised, these falls are likely to continue to support positive winter crop yield expectations in southern regions and above average pasture growth across much of the southeast.
• The national rainfall outlook for October to December 2026 indicates an above average chance of below median rainfall across parts of south-eastern Australia as well as parts of the far north of the country. However, there is an above average chance of median to above median rainfall much of the remainder Australia.
  • The current rainfall outlook for October to December 2026 suggests a decreased chance of exceeding average falls across some cropping regions in south-eastern Australia but increased chances of exceeding average falls in Western Australia, Queensland and northern New South Wales. If forecast rainfall totals are realised, they are likely to be sufficient to continue to support the current strong yield potential of winter crops across much of southern Australia and improve pasture growth outcomes in regions where previous rainfall was below average. However, the close to median rainfall forecast across most cropping regions in Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales may arrive too late to improve below average expected winter and summer crop production outcomes.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 130 gigalitres (GL) between 3 September 2026 and 10 September 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 14,844 GL, equivalent to 67% of total storage capacity. This is 3% or 518 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $336/ML on 3 September 2026 to $342/ML on 10 September 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is closed.