Overview
Predicted trade volume can be considered when assessing the likelihood of entry.
- Examples of limited trade volume that could be considered during pest risk assessment include a commodity that has low sales or is coming from low-production countries, plants for planting that must undertake costly post-entry quarantine, and countries that send few sea containers.
- Consideration of trade volume during pest risk assessment requires an understanding of the relationship between trade volume and the likelihood of pest entry and establishment.
- The NPPO of the importing country may not have the authority to place restrictions on the volume of trade. However, the effect of trade volumes on risk can be considered during a pest risk assessment if there is some confidence around projected import volumes.
- Actual trade volumes should be periodically assessed if considered in a pest risk assessment.
Evidence to support efficacy
Realistic trade volume estimates are required when taking it into account during pest risk assessment. As trade volume increases, the potential number of infested consignments being imported into a jurisdiction also increases. This increases the likelihood of pest entry and establishment. However, this risk also depends on consignment size. For instance, limited trade volume may mean fewer, larger shipments or a greater number of smaller ones, which affects individual pest release patterns. The likelihood that enough pests will be released together to establish a new population is higher for fewer, larger shipments relative to more frequent, smaller ones.
Applying the measure
How it is used
Trade volumes can differ by orders of magnitude between trade pathways. Trade volumes may always be relatively small for some commodities (e.g. novelty fruit, living plant material for scientific purposes), if sourced from some countries (e.g. where production or export volume is low), and where the market in the importing country is small. Trade volume estimates can be considered during a pest risk assessment, with the overall likelihood of entry being expected to increase with increasing volumes of trade. For example, the likelihood of entry for a particular pest based on an estimated volume of trade for the specified trade pathway over one year may be considered in a risk assessment.
Trade volumes can not be restricted for biosecurity risk mitigation purposes under international trade obligations. However, for some commodities, import requirements may indirectly lead to lower trade volumes. For example, in vitro plant material that requires extended, and costly, post-entry quarantine.
Use with other measures
Anticipated trade volumes may influence the need for risk mitigation measures. Therefore, importing countries with small trade volumes may require less stringent phytosanitary measures. Similarly, risk mitigation measures may not need to be as strong for commodities that are only ever traded at small volumes.
Similar measures
Trade volume interacts with consignment and packaging size to influence the number and size of independent pest releases that could occur.
Assurance of correct implementation
Actual trade volumes should be periodically assessed if estimates were used for pest risk assessment, especially for commodities where export growth is possible.