Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 26 March 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 25 March 2026, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Narelle brought heavy rainfall to northern Australia.
  • Severe weather and flood warnings remain in place in Queensland, and parts of the Northern Territory, South Australia and New South Wales. Disruptions to supply chains are expected to persist. Most cropping regions of Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, the west of Western Australia and northern New South Wales saw little to no rainfall, while parts of New South Wales saw up to 50 millimetres.
• Over the 8 days to 2 April 2026, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Narelle is expected to bring heavy rainfall and destructive winds to the far west of Australia, while frontal and low-pressure systems are expected the bring rainfall to south-eastern Australia:
  • Falls of between 25-100 millimetres are forecast for large parts of the west of Western Australia, while the Northern Tropics continues to see rainfall of 10-50 millimetres.
  • These falls are likely to exacerbate existing flooding in the north, extend supply chain disruptions and slow recovery efforts.
• The national rainfall outlook for April to June 2026 indicates an increased probability of below median rainfall across much of southern and central Australia.
  • These expected well below average falls for much of southern and central Australia represents an increased downside production risk for the upcoming 2026–27 winter cropping season and autumn pasture growth.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 34 gigalitres (GL) between 19 March 2026 and 26 March 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 10,541 GL, equivalent to 47% of total storage capacity. This is 14% or 1,746 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $463/ML on 19 March 2026 to $421/ML on 26 March 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.