Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 17 September 2026

Key issues

• In the week ending 16 September 2026, cold fronts brought limited rainfall to parts of southern and central Australia.
• Across cropping regions rainfall was generally restricted to the west and parts of the southeast. In Western Australia, most areas recorded falls of between 1-10 millimetres with falls of up to 25 millimetres observed in some central and northern areas. In western Victoria and parts of southern New South Wales falls of 1-15 millimetres were recorded. In South Australia falls of between 1- 10 millimetres were observed in the west and some eastern areas.
  • These falls are expected to continue to support winter crop and pasture growth.
• Over the 8 days to 24 September 2026, rainfall is expected in south-western Australia and Tasmania, as well as the eastern seaboard, while much of the remainder of Australia is expected to remain largely dry.
  • Cropping regions in Western Australia are forecast to receive 1-25 millimetres, with higher rainfall totals in southern areas. Remaining cropping regions are forecast to see little to no rainfall.
• Rainfall in August 2026 was variable across the world’s major grain and oilseed producing regions, leading to differing crop production outcomes. Global production conditions were highly variable for wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice. Unfavourable conditions across parts of the United States, India, Europe and Southeast Asia are a risk to potential global production outcomes for major grains and oilseeds.
  • Global production conditions have been slightly less favourable to those used to formulate ABARES 2026–27 forecasts of global grain supplies and world prices in the September 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report. As a result, global grain and oilseed production are likely to decrease below the estimates in the September forecast, due to declines in global soybeans and maize production more than offsetting a small, expected increase in global wheat production.
• Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased by 214 gigalitres (GL) between 10 September 2026 and 17 September 2026. The current volume of water held in storages is 15,058 GL, equivalent to 68% of total storage capacity. This is -3% or -526 GL less than the same time last year. Water storage data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
• Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $342/ML on 10 September 2026 to $337/ML on 17 September 2026. Trade from the Goulburn to the Murray is closed. Trade downstream through the Barmah Choke is closed. Trade from the Murrumbidgee to the Murray is open.